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Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12

  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide
  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • Duffy, David
  • Timoney, Kevin
  • Znuderl, Nusa

The experience of the last five years has been truly exceptional, involving the worst economic crisis in Ireland since the Second World War. The legacy effects of this crisis include a dramatic increase in the indebtedness of the state as well as an exceptionally high level of unemployment. The purpose of this Medium-Term Review is, first, to explore how the Irish economy works; second, to set out a range of possible future scenarios for the economy and third to use these scenarios to consider how domestic policy might improve the possible outcomes. Because of the uncertainty about the future, we consider three possible scenarios or paths for the economy over the rest of the decade. It will be some time before we know which of these scenarios is most likely to be correct and policy needs to take account of this uncertainty.

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This book is provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Forecasting Report with number MTR12 and published in 2013.
ISBN: 97807070035
Handle: RePEc:esr:forcas:mtr:v:12
Note: Publisher: ESRI
Contact details of provider: Postal: Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2
Phone: (353-1) 863 2000
Fax: (353-1) 863 2100
Web page: http://www.esri.ie
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  1. FitzGerald, John, 2013. "The Effect of Re-domiciled Plcs on Irish Output Measures and the Balance of Payments," Research Notes RN2013/1/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  2. Callan, Tim & Brick, Aoife & Durkan, Joe & Keane, Claire & Lane, Marguerita & Miles, David & Nolan, Anne & Nolan, Brian & O'Leary, Jim & Walsh, John R., 2010. "Budget Perspectives 2011," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS18.
  3. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Smyth, Diarmaid, 1999. "Medium-Term Review 1999-2005, No. 7," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR07, December.
  4. Barrell, Ray & FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The Banking Sector and Recovery in the EU Economy Reference," Papers RB2011/2/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. repec:esr:chaptr:jacb201351 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  7. Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2010. "Managing Housing Bubbles in Regional Economies Under EMU: Ireland and Spain," Papers RB2010/2/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  8. Santiago Carbó-Valverde & Francisco Rodríguez-Fernández & Gregory F. Udell, 2009. "Bank Market Power and SME Financing Constraints," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 309-340.
  9. Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The Macro-economic Impact of Changing the Rate of Corporation Tax," Papers RB2011/2/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  10. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide, 2007. "Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 839-858, November.
  11. Thomas Conefrey & John D. Fitz Gerald & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri & Richard S.J. Tol, 2013. "The impact of a carbon tax on economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(7), pages 934-952, September.
  12. Tim Callan & Brian Nolan & Claire Keane & Michael Savage & John Walsh, 2014. "Crisis, response and distributional impact: the case of Ireland," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
  13. FitzGerald, John, 2011. "Restoring Credibility in Policy Making in Ireland," Papers WP415, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  14. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2010. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20102, December.
  15. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Savage, Michael & Walsh, John R., 2013. "Taxes on Income: Ireland in Comparative Perspective," Papers BP2014/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  16. John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Assessing the impact of EU Cohesion Policy: What can economic models tell us?," HERMIN Economic Papers 2-2012, HERMIN.
  17. John Curtis & John FitzGerald, 1994. "Convergence in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP045, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  18. David Duffy & John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP166, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  19. Ray Barrell & Tatiana Fie & John Fitz Gerald & Ali Orazgani & Rachel Whitworth, 2011. "The Banking Sector and Recovery in the EU Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 216(1), pages R41-R52, April.
  20. Duffy, David & O'Hanlon, Niall, 2013. "Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market: Estimates Using Loan Level Data," Papers WP463, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  21. Davis, E. Philip & Stone, Mark R., 2004. "Corporate financial structure and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 65-91, September.
  22. Bergin, Adele & Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus, 2012. "Explaining Changes in Earnings and Labour Costs During the Recession," Papers EC9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  23. Callan,Tim & Keane,Claire & Savage,Michael & Walsh,John R., 2012. "Distributional Impact of Tax, Welfare and Public Sector Pay Policies: 2009-2012," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(4-Winter ).
  24. Chong, T.T.L. & Lu, L. & Ongena, S., 2012. "Does Banking Competition Alleviate or Worsen Credit Constraints Faced by Small and Medium Enterprises? Evidence from China (Replaces CentER DP 2011-006)," Discussion Paper 2012-013, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  25. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
  26. Bradley, John & Fitz Gerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 1993. "Modelling supply in an open economy using a restricted cost function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 11-21, January.
  27. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28.
  28. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007.
  29. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from the HERMES Macro-Economic Model," Papers WP287, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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