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Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12

Author

Listed:
  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide
  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • Duffy, David
  • Timoney, Kevin
  • Znuderl, Nusa

Abstract

The experience of the last five years has been truly exceptional, involving the worst economic crisis in Ireland since the Second World War. The legacy effects of this crisis include a dramatic increase in the indebtedness of the state as well as an exceptionally high level of unemployment. The purpose of this Medium-Term Review is, first, to explore how the Irish economy works; second, to set out a range of possible future scenarios for the economy and third to use these scenarios to consider how domestic policy might improve the possible outcomes. Because of the uncertainty about the future, we consider three possible scenarios or paths for the economy over the rest of the decade. It will be some time before we know which of these scenarios is most likely to be correct and policy needs to take account of this uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:forcas:mtr:v:12 Note: Publisher: ESRI
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    File URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/MTR12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28.
    2. Conefrey, Thomas & Fitz Gerald, John D., 2011. "The macro-economic impact of changing the rate of corporation tax," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 991-999, May.
    3. Callan,Tim & Keane,Claire & Savage,Michael & Walsh,John R., 2012. "Distributional Impact of Tax, Welfare and Public Sector Pay Policies: 2009-2012," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Santiago Carbó-Valverde & Francisco Rodríguez-Fernández & Gregory F. Udell, 2009. "Bank Market Power and SME Financing Constraints," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 309-340.
    5. FitzGerald, John, 2013. "The Effect of Re-domiciled Plcs on Irish Output Measures and the Balance of Payments," Research Notes RN2013/1/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from the HERMES Macro-Economic Model," Papers WP287, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Barrell, Ray & FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The Banking Sector and Recovery in the EU Economy Reference," Papers RB2011/2/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Thomas Conefrey & John D. Fitz Gerald & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri & Richard S.J. Tol, 2013. "The impact of a carbon tax on economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(7), pages 934-952, September.
    9. Davis, E. Philip & Stone, Mark R., 2004. "Corporate financial structure and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 65-91, September.
    10. Tim Callan & Brian Nolan & Claire Keane & Michael Savage & John Walsh, 2014. "Crisis, response and distributional impact: the case of Ireland," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), pages 1-17.
    11. Thomas Conefrey & John Fitz Gerald, 2010. "Managing Housing Bubbles In Regional Economies Under Emu: Ireland And Spain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, pages 91-108.
    12. Duffy, David & O'Hanlon, Niall, 2013. "Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market: Estimates Using Loan Level Data," Papers WP463, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
    14. Callan, Tim & Brick, Aoife & Durkan, Joe & Keane, Claire & Lane, Marguerita & Miles, David & Nolan, Anne & Nolan, Brian & O'Leary, Jim & Walsh, John R., 2010. "Budget Perspectives 2011," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS18.
    15. Bergin, Adele & Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus, 2012. "Explaining Changes in Earnings and Labour Costs During the Recession," Papers EC9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Smyth, Diarmaid, 1999. "Medium-Term Review 1999-2005, No. 7," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR07.
    17. John Curtis & John FitzGerald, 1994. "Convergence in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP045, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Assessing the impact of EU Cohesion Policy: What can economic models tell us?," HERMIN Economic Papers 2-2012, HERMIN.
    19. David Duffy & John Fitz Gerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, pages 251-272.
    20. repec:esr:chaptr:jacb201351 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. John FitzGerald, 2012. "Restoring credibility in policy-making in Ireland," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 27-34, January.
    22. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide, 2007. "Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 839-858, November.
    23. Bradley, John & Fitz Gerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 1993. "Modelling supply in an open economy using a restricted cost function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 11-21, January.
    24. Ray Barrell & Tatiana Fic & John Fitz Gerald, 2011. "The Banking Sector And Recovery In The Eu Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 216(1), pages 41-52, April.
    25. Everett, Mary & McNeill, Joe & Phelan, Gillian, 2013. "Measuring the Value Added of the Financial Sector in Ireland," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-98, April.
    26. Chong, T.T.L. & Lu, L. & Ongena, S., 2012. "Does Banking Competition Alleviate or Worsen Credit Constraints Faced by Small and Medium Enterprises? Evidence from China (Replaces CentER DP 2011-006)," Discussion Paper 2012-013, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    27. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    28. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Savage, Michael & Walsh, John R., 2013. "Taxes on Income: Ireland in Comparative Perspective," Papers BP2014/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    29. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2014. "Credit Requirements for Irish Firms in the Economic Recovery," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Lawless, Martina & McCann, Fergal & O'Toole, Conor, 2013. "The importance of banks in SME financing: Ireland in a European context," Economic Letters 05/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Irish Fiscal Policy in Good Times and in Bad: Its Impact During Different Stages of the Economic Cycle," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. repec:eee:energy:v:138:y:2017:i:c:p:1030-1041 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gary Tobin & Keith Walsh, 2013. "What Makes a Country a Tax Haven? An Assessment of International Standards Shows Why Ireland Is Not a Tax Haven," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 401-424.
    6. Duffy, David & Byrne, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Alternative Scenarios for New Household Formation in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Fahey, Tony & Russell, Helen, 2001. "Family Formation in Ireland Trends, Data Needs and Implications: Report to Family Affairs Unit, Department of Social, Community and Family Affairs," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS43.
    8. Lawless, Martina & O'Toole, Conor & Lambert, Derek, 2014. "Financing SMEs in Recovery: Evidence for Irish Policy Options," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT276.
    9. McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble Toil and Trouble? An Assessment of the Current State of the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Brian O'Connell & Conor O'Toole, 2015. "Do Credit Constraints Affect SME Investment and Employment?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 51-86.
    11. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Mc Inerney, Niall, 2014. "The Role of Credit in the Housing Market," Papers WP495, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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