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Assessing the impact of EU Cohesion Policy: What can economic models tell us?

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Listed:
  • John Bradley

    () (EMDS - Economic Modelling and Development Strategies)

  • Gerhard Untiedt

    () (GEFRA - Gesellschaft fuer Finanz- und Regionalanalysen)

Abstract

The challenge of evaluating the impacts of cohesion policy lies in the complexity of the public policy instruments being used in terms of individual projects, wider measures, operational programmes and the entire investment package taken as a whole. The goal of cohesion policy – to promote accelerated growth and development in lagging EU member states and regions, i.e. development at the aggregate macroeconomic level – is ambitious and theevaluation of its likely impacts draws on economic and other research that is still at an early stage of evolution. The context within which cohesion policy is designed, implemented and evaluated is also complex and this should serve as a warning against simplistic evaluations and premature judgements. In the course of cohesion policy impact evaluation there are really only two crucial decisions to be taken. First, do you need to construct an explicit policy counterfactual? Second, if the answer is “yes”, how does one define thecounterfactual? If one wishes to identify the specific contribution of a policy action, it would be difficult to answer other than “yes” to the first question. But there are a range of possible answers to the second question.

Suggested Citation

  • John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Assessing the impact of EU Cohesion Policy: What can economic models tell us?," HERMIN Economic Papers 2-2012, HERMIN.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrm:wpaper:2-2012
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    File URL: http://www.herminonline.net/images/downloads/hep/hep-2-2012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Ratto & Werner Röger & Jan in't Veld & Riccardo Girardi, 2005. "An estimated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 220, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1993. "Does public capital affect private sector performance? : An analysis of the Spanish case, 1964-1988," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 179-185, July.
    3. Barbara Sianesi & John Van Reenen, 2003. "The Returns to Education: Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 157-200, April.
    4. John Bradley & Timo Mitze & Edgar Morgenroth & Gerhard Untiedt, 2006. "How can we know if EU cohesion policy is successful? Integrating micro and macro approaches to the evaluation of Structural Funds," Working Papers 1-2006, GEFRA - Gesellschaft fuer Finanz- und Regionalanalysen.
    5. Angel De la Fuente, 2010. "Infrastructures and productivity: an updated survey," Working Papers 1018, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, April.
    7. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
    8. Pessoa, Argentino, 2010. "R&D and economic growth: How strong is the link?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 152-154, May.
    9. Bradley, John & Fanning, Connell & Prendergast, Canice & Wynne, Mark, 1985. "Medium-Term Analysis of Fiscal Policy in Ireland: A Macroeconometric Study of the Period 1967-1980," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS122.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roberta Capello & Camilla Lenzi, 2015. "Una valutazione della rilevanza e utilità delle politiche di Ricerca e sviluppo tecnologico dell’Unione Europea," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(3 Suppl.), pages 13-36.
    2. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, April.
    4. Mario Fortuna & Francisco Silva & Ana Medeiros, 2016. "A CGE approach to measuring the impacts of EU structural funds in a small open economy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 507-538, August.

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