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Do economic models tell us anything useful about Cohesion Policy impacts? A comparison of HERMIN, QUEST and ECOMOD

Listed author(s):
  • John Bradley

    ()

    (EMDS - Economic Modelling and Development Strategies)

  • Gerhard Untiedt

    ()

    (GEFRA - Gesellschaft fuer Finanz- und Regionalanalysen)

An ex-ante impact analysis of EC Cohesion Policy investment programmes for the period 2007-2013 was recently carried out on behalf of the European Commission (DG Regional Policy) using three different economic models: the QUEST II model of DG-ECFIN, the ECOMOD model of EcoMod Network/Free University of Brussels and the COHESION system of HERMIN models of GEFRA/EMDS. The main results were published in the most recent Fourth Cohesion Report (EC, 2007), and it turned out that different models gave different results. In some cases the differences were very big and pointed to quite different conclusions about the impact of the European Cohesion Policy on growth and employment impacts. In order to progress the debate on the usefulness of model-based policy impact analysis, we first set out the wider context within which EC Cohesion Policy is designed, implemented and evaluated. We then present a brief summary of the main findings of the model-based analysis in terms of impacts on aggregate GDP and total employment. We conclude with a discussion of possible reasons why two of the models – QUEST and HERMIN - may be producing different results.

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File URL: http://www.gefra-muenster.org/downloads/doc/gefra-wp-2007-3.pdf
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Paper provided by GEFRA - Gesellschaft fuer Finanz- und Regionalanalysen in its series Working Papers with number 3-2007.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Handle: RePEc:gef:wpaper:3-2007
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.gefra.org/index.htm
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  1. Barbara Sianesi & John Van Reenen, 2003. "The Returns to Education: Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 157-200, April.
  2. Sjed Ederveen & Joeri Gorter & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2003. "Funds and Games: The Economics of European Cohesion Policy," Occasional Papers 03, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  3. Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, April.
  4. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Angrist, 2001. "How Large are Human-Capital Externalities? Evidence from Compulsory-Schooling Laws," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 9-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Gerhard Untiedt & Hans Joachim Schalk, 2000. "Regional investment incentives in Germany: Impacts on factor demand and growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 34(2), pages 173-195.
  7. Tamim Bayoumi & Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam & Alessandro Rebucci & Jaewoo Lee & Benjamin L Hunt & Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "GEM; A New International Macroeconomic Model," IMF Occasional Papers 239, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
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