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The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment

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  • Vetlov, Igor
  • Ferdinandusse, Marien
  • de Jong, Jasper
  • Funda, Josip

Abstract

We consider the effect of an increase in public investments on output in Europe against the background of a sharp drop of public investments in a number of EU countries during the crisis and subsequent policy discussions on the need to stimulate public investments. We start with a brief overview of recent developments in public investments, including some methodological issues, and provide a literature overview of the effect of public investments on growth. On the basis of updated estimates of the public capital stock, we estimate the output response to a public capital impulse, using VAR models. In addition, using a structural model, we investigate the sensitivity of the macroeconomic impact of an increase in public investments to alternative assumptions about economic structures and policy implementations. JEL Classification: E32, E62, C30

Suggested Citation

  • Vetlov, Igor & Ferdinandusse, Marien & de Jong, Jasper & Funda, Josip, 2017. "The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment," Working Paper Series 2021, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172021
    Note: 673741
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    2. J. F. M. De Jong & M. Ferdinandusse & J. Funda, 2018. "Public capital in the 21st century: as productive as ever?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5543-5560, November.
    3. Lorenzo Burlon & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2017. "Public investment and monetary policy stance in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1150, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    9. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Noel Rapa & Abigail Marie Rapa, "undated". "The macroeconomic effects of closing the public sector capital gap in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/07/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    11. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    12. Andreea Ocolișanu & Gabriela Dobrotă & Dan Dobrotă, 2022. "The Effects of Public Investment on Sustainable Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    13. Burriel, Pablo & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Jacquinot, Pascal & Stähler, Nikolai & Schön, Matthias, 2020. "Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models," Working Paper Series 2450, European Central Bank.
    14. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2019. "Government Investment, Its Financing and the Public Capital Stock: A Small Open Economy Perspective," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Masten, Igor & Grdović Gnip, Ana, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1179-1194.
    16. J. F. M. De Jong & M. Ferdinandusse & J. Funda, 2018. "Public capital in the 21st century: as productive as ever?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5543-5560, November.
    17. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2020. "Financing government investment and its implications for public capital: A small open economy perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 620-641.
    18. P. Butzen & S. Cheliout & N. Cordemans & E. De Prest & W. Melyn & L. Van Meensel & S. Van Parys, 2017. "Towards a new policy mix in the euro area ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 63-91, December.
    19. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis, Italy and Ms Merkel’s Turnaround: Will the EU Ever be the Same Again?," EconPol Policy Reports 25, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. GULER Ovidiu–Vasile, 2020. "Comparative Analysis Of Investments Made In Romania From European Funds Between 2007 - 2013 And 2014 €“ 2020," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 209-218, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; fiscal policy; general equilibrium modelling; public investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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