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Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?

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  • Blanchard, Olivier J
  • Erceg, Christopher
  • Lindé, Jesper

Abstract

We show that a fiscal expansion by the core economies of the euro area would have a large and positive impact on periphery GDP assuming that policy rates remain low for a prolonged period. Under our preferred model specification, an expansion of core government spending equal to one percent of euro area GDP would boost periphery GDP around 1 percent in a liquidity trap lasting three years, about half as large as the effect on core GDP. Accordingly, under a standard ad hoc loss function involving output and inflation gaps, increasing core spending would generate substantial welfare improvements, especially in the periphery. The benefits are considerably smaller under a utility-based welfare measure, reflecting in part that higher net exports play a material role in raising periphery GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanchard, Olivier J & Erceg, Christopher & Lindé, Jesper, 2015. "Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10716, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10716
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    Cited by:

    1. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "¿Tienen futuro los modelos DSGE?," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(35), pages 39-46, July-Dece.
    3. repec:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9446-z is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bletzinger, Tilman & von Thadden, Leopold, 2017. "Designing QE to overcome the lower bound constraint on interest rates in a fiscally sound monetary union," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168176, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. repec:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:4:p:58-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gustavo Adler & Carolina Osorio Buitron, 2017. "Policy Mix and the US Trade Balance," IMF Working Papers 17/204, International Monetary Fund.
    7. J. Boeckx & M. Deroose, 2016. "Monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area : independent but nevertheless connected," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-25, september.
    8. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The effect of fiscal policy and forward guidance with preferences over wealth," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168070, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Damodaran, Nikhil, 2016. "Export Subsidies and Interdependence in Euro Union: Beggar Thy Neighbor?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235701, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2018. "Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound," ADBI Working Papers 801, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Lind�, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2017. "Should We Use Linearized Models To Calculate Fiscal Multipliers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    13. Guilherme Bandeira, 2018. "Fiscal transfers in a monetary union with sovereign risk," Working Papers 1807, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    14. Vetlov, Igor & Ferdinandusse, Marien & de Jong, Jasper & Funda, Josip, 2017. "The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment," Working Paper Series 2021, European Central Bank.
    15. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    16. Alexandre Lucas Cole & Chiara Guerello & Guido Traficante, 2016. "Government Debt Deleveraging in the EMU," Working Papers CELEG 1603, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    17. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:95-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Grégory Claeys & Zsolt Darvas & Alvaro Leandro, 2016. "A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework," Policy Contributions 13490, Bruegel.
    19. Vetlov, Igor & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Lalik, Magdalena, 2017. "Fiscal spillovers in the euro area a model-based analysis," Working Paper Series 2040, European Central Bank.
    20. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    21. AMENDOLA, Adalgiso & DI SERIO, Mario & FRAGETTA, Matteo, 2018. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the Euro Area," CELPE Discussion Papers 153, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    22. Massimo Bordignon & Simona Scabrosetti, 2016. "The Political Economy of Financing the EU budget," Working papers 42, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    23. repec:oup:oxford:v:34:y:2018:i:1-2:p:269-286. is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Alexandre Lucas Cole & Chiara Guerello & Guido Traficante, 2016. "One EMU Fiscal Policy for the EURO," Working Papers CELEG 1602, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    25. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.

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    Keywords

    currency union; DSGE model; fiscal policy; liquidity trap; monetary policy; zero bound constraint;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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