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Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31

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  • Olivier Blanchard
  • Christopher J. Erceg
  • Jesper Lindé

Abstract

We show that a fiscal expansion by the core economies of the euro area would have a large and positive impact on periphery GDP assuming that policy rates remain low for a prolonged period. Under our preferred model specification, an expansion of core government spending equal to one percent of euro area GDP would boost periphery GDP by over 1 percent in a liquidity trap lasting three years, nearly half as large as the effect on core GDP. Accordingly, under a standard ad hoc loss function involving output and inflation gaps, increasing core spending would generate substantial welfare improvements, especially in the periphery. The benefits are considerably smaller under a utility-based welfare measure, reflecting in part that higher net exports play a material role in raising periphery GDP.
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Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Blanchard & Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2016. "Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 103-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13784
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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