IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/esr/resser/rs70.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Morgenroth, Edgar

Abstract

The research provides projections for regions and counties across Ireland up to the year 2040, examining what will happen if current spatial planning patterns continue, and what would happen in a range of alternative scenarios. If the current pattern of growth continues, it will lead to a further gap in prosperity between Dublin and the rest of the country. In Dublin, it will lead to additional housing demand and increased long-distance commuting. Projections show that if current trends continue, population growth, employment growth and jobs growth will be concentrated in Dublin and the Mid-East of Ireland. The research finds that the most positive outcomes would result from a scenario in which growth is split equally between the East and Midland region and the rest of the country. This would relieve pressure in the Dublin region, while still allowing significant growth. Scaling up second-tier cities would provide a greater range of functions in surrounding areas. To achieve this, it is necessary to develop within the cities the necessary infrastructure, such as water and wastewater infrastructure, urban public transport, schools etc. It is essential that affordable housing and other amenities are provided in cities in order to attract people to live there and to avoid further sprawl. The increased scale of the second-tier cities would allow them and their wider hinterland to generate more start-up firms and attract more FDI.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgenroth, Edgar, 2018. "Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS70, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:resser:rs70
    DOI: 10.26504/RS70
    Note: Publisher is ESRI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/RS70.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
    2. Ciccone, Antonio, 2002. "Agglomeration effects in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 213-227, February.
    3. Holger Görg & Eric Strobl, 2016. "Multinational Companies, Technology Spillovers and Plant Survival," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND HOST COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT, chapter 16, pages 289-303, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Shaoming Cheng & Huaqun Li, 2011. "Spatially Varying Relationships of New Firm Formation in the United States," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 773-789.
    5. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    6. Coro Chasco & Ana Lopez & Rachel Guillain, 2012. "The Influence of Geography on the Spatial Agglomeration of Production in the European Union," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 247-263, June.
    7. Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
    8. Dahl, Michael S. & Pedersen, Christian O.R., 2004. "Knowledge flows through informal contacts in industrial clusters: myth or reality?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1673-1686, December.
    9. FitzGerald, John, 2015. "Problems Interpreting the National Accounts in a Globalised Economy — Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2013. "The Regional Dimension of the Unemployment Crisis," Research Notes RN2012/4/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Barrios, Salvador & Strobl, Eric, 2009. "The dynamics of regional inequalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 575-591, September.
    12. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    13. Cathal O'Donoghue & David Meredith & Eamon O'Shea, 2011. "Postponing maternity in Ireland," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 59-84.
    14. Bernard Fingleton & Danilo Camargo Igliori & Barry Moore, 2004. "Employment Growth of Small High-technology Firms and the Role of Horizontal Clustering: Evidence from Computing Services and R&D in Great Britain, 1991-2000," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 41(4), pages 773-799, April.
    15. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    16. Henderson, Vernon, 2002. "Urban primacy, external costs, and quality of life," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 95-106, February.
    17. Richard Layte & Anne Nolan, 2016. "Socio-economic Differentials in Male Mortality in Ireland 1984-2008," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(3), pages 361-390.
    18. Martina Lawless, 2014. "Age or size? Contributions to job creation," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 815-830, April.
    19. De Silva, Dakshina G. & McComb, Robert P., 2012. "Geographic concentration and high tech firm survival," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 691-701.
    20. Brülhart, Marius & Sbergami, Federica, 2009. "Agglomeration and growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 48-63, January.
    21. Wei Fan & Frederick Treyz & George Treyz, 2000. "An Evolutionary New Economic Geography Model," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 671-695, November.
    22. Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 54-70, March.
    23. John M. Quigley, 1998. "Urban Diversity and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 127-138, Spring.
    24. William C. Wheaton, 1999. "Real Estate “Cycles”: Some Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 209-230, June.
    25. Hill Kulu, 2008. "Fertility and Spatial Mobility in the Life Course: Evidence from Austria," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 40(3), pages 632-652, March.
    26. Anna Damm, 2009. "Determinants of recent immigrants’ location choices: quasi-experimental evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 145-174, January.
    27. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, October.
    28. Chris Leishman & Glen Bramley, 2005. "A Local Housing Market Model with Spatial Interaction and Land-Use Planning Controls," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 37(9), pages 1637-1649, September.
    29. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, October.
    30. Scott Shane, 2009. "Why encouraging more people to become entrepreneurs is bad public policy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 141-149, August.
    31. Bellak, Christian & Leibrecht, Markus & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2008. "Labour costs and FDI flows into Central and Eastern European Countries: A survey of the literature and empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 17-37, March.
    32. Daniel J Graham, 2009. "Identifying urbanisation and localisation externalities in manufacturing and service industries," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 63-84, March.
    33. Brendan M. Walsh, 2008. "Wealthier and healthier : Ireland's demographic catch-up," Open Access publications 10197/1538, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    34. Wren, Maev-Ann & Keegan, Conor & Walsh, Brendan & Bergin, Adele & Eighan, James & Brick, Aoife & Connolly, Sheelah & Watson, Dorothy & Banks, Joanne, 2017. "Projections of demand for healthcare in Ireland, 2015-2030: First report from the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS67, April.
    35. Edgar Morgenroth, 2006. "Economic Integration and Structural Change: The Case of Irish Regions," Papers WP176, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    36. Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2000. "Power Couples: Changes in the Locational Choice of the College Educated, 1940–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1287-1315.
    37. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent, 2008. "Spatial wage disparities: Sorting matters!," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 723-742, March.
    38. Brady, Ryan R., 2014. "The spatial diffusion of regional housing prices across U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 150-166.
    39. Antonio M. Bento & Maureen L. Cropper & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Katja Vinha, 2005. "The Effects of Urban Spatial Structure on Travel Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 466-478, August.
    40. Stegarescu, Dan & Schwager, Robert & Büttner, Thiess, 2004. "Agglomeration, Population Size, and the Cost of Providing Public Services: An Empirical Analysis for German States," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-18, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    41. Coughlin, Cletus C & Terza, Joseph V & Arromdee, Vachira, 1991. "State Characteristics and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment within the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 675-683, November.
    42. Michael Anyadike-Danes & Mark Hart & Helena Lenihan, 2011. "New business formation in a rapidly growing economy: the Irish experience," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 503-516, May.
    43. Gregory Spencer & Tara Vinodrai & Meric Gertler & David Wolfe, 2010. "Do Clusters Make a Difference? Defining and Assessing their Economic Performance," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 697-715.
    44. Edgar Morgenroth, 2002. "Evaluating Methods for Short to Medium Term County Population Forecasting," Papers WP143, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    45. Catherine Beaudry & G. Swann, 2009. "Firm growth in industrial clusters of the United Kingdom," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 409-424, April.
    46. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 425-453, August.
    47. Melo, Patricia C. & Graham, Daniel J. & Noland, Robert B., 2009. "A meta-analysis of estimates of urban agglomeration economies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 332-342, May.
    48. Miriam Hortas-Rico & Albert Solé-Ollé, 2010. "Does Urban Sprawl Increase the Costs of Providing Local Public Services? Evidence from Spanish Municipalities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1513-1540, June.
    49. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    50. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    51. McCoy, Daire & Lyons, Sean & Morgenroth, Edgar & Palcic, Donal & Allen, Leonie, 2016. "The impact of local infrastructure on new business establishments," MPRA Paper 69074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Martina Lawless & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2019. "The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 189-207, April.
    53. Audretsch, David B, 1998. "Agglomeration and the Location of Innovative Activity," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 18-29, Summer.
    54. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis," Research Notes RN2014/2/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    55. Catherine Armington & Zoltan Acs, 2002. "The Determinants of Regional Variation in New Firm Formation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 33-45.
    56. Henderson, Vernon, 2003. "The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-What Question," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 47-71, March.
    57. Stuart S. Rosenthal & William C. Strange, 2008. "Agglomeration and Hours Worked," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 105-118, February.
    58. McQuinn, Kieran & Foley, Daniel & Kelly, Elish, 2016. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2016," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20164, October.
    59. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2008. "Exploring the Economic Geography of Ireland," Papers WP271, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    60. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Two Speed Recovery? Spatial Development in Ireland," Research Notes RN2014/4/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fahey, Éamonn & Russell, Helen & McGinnity, Frances & Grotti, Raffaele, 2019. "Diverse neighbourhoods: an analysis of the residential distribution of immigrants in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT376, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:resser:rs70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.