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Long and Short Distance Migration in Italy: The Role of Economic, Social and Environmental Characteristics

  • Bianca Biagi
  • Alessandra Faggian
  • Philip McCann

Abstract This paper analyses Italian interregional migration flows. The approach taken is to decompose labour mobility flows into short distance and long distance migration and to model the effects of economic variables, social capital and quality of life variables, and amenity variables, on the mobility behaviour of individuals. We estimate these different types of migration flows using a negative binomial model, augmented with instruments to control for potential endogeneity issues. Our findings demonstrate that long distance migration reflects a disequilibrium model of migration whereas short distance migration largely reflects an equilibrium model of migration. As such, attempts to model interregional migration in general will be mis-specified as the simultaneously-operating underlying mobility systems are quite different in nature. Migration éloignée et rapprochée en Italie : rôle de facteurs économiques, sociaux et environnementaux Résumé La présente communication analyse les flux migratoires interrégionaux en Italie. Le principe adopté consiste à décomposer les flux de mobilité de la main-d’æuvre en migrations rapprochée et migration éloignée, puis de modéliser les effets de variables économiques, de variables propres au capital social et à la qualité de vie, et de variables sur le plan de l'agrément sur le comportement de la mobilité des particuliers. Nous effectuons une estimation de ces différents types de flux migratoires en utilisant un modèle binomial négatif, renforcé par des instruments pour le contrôle de questions d'endogénéité potentielles. Nos conclusions démontrent que la migration éloignée reflète un modèle de déséquilibre de la migration, alors que la migration rapprochée reflète en grand partie un modèle déséquilibre de la migration. De cette façon, toutes tentatives de modélisation de migrations interrégionales seront spécifiées de façon erronée, du fait de la nature différente des systèmes de mobilité sous-jacents agissant simultanément. La migración de larga y corta distancia en Italia: el papel de las características económicas, sociales y ambientales Resumen En este trabajo se analizan los flujos migratorios interregionales de Italia. El método adoptado es la descomposición de los flujos de movilidad laboral en migración de corta y migración de larga distancia, y modelar los efectos de las variables económicas, las variables de capital social y de calidad de vida, y las variables de bienestar, con base en el comportamiento de la movilidad de los individuos. Estimamos estos tipos de flujos migratorios diferentes a través de un modelo binomial negativo, ampliado con instrumentos que permiten controlar los posibles problemas de endogeneidad. Nuestras conclusiones demuestran que la migración de larga distancia refleja un modelo desequilibrado de migración, mientras que la migración de corta distancia refleja en gran medida un modelo equilibrado de migración. Como tal, los intentos para modelar la migración interregional, en términos generales, serán tergiversados dado que los sistemas de movilidad subyacentes que funcionan simultáneamente son de naturaleza bastante diferente.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Spatial Economic Analysis.

Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 111-131

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Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:6:y:2011:i:1:p:111-131
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