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Population growth in European cities: Weather matters - but only nationally

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  • Paul Cheshire
  • Stefano Magrini

Abstract

CHESHIRE P. C. and MAGRINI S. (2006) Population growth in European cities: weather matters - but only nationally, Regional Studies 40, 23-37. This paper investigates differences in the rate of growth of population across the large city-regions of the European Union (EU)-12 between 1980 and 2000. The US model, which assumes perfect factor mobility, does not seem well adapted to European conditions. There is evidence strongly suggesting that equilibrating migration flows between cities in different countries are highly constrained in the EU. However, quality-of-life motives do seem to be a significant and important feature of differential population growth rates if measured relative to national rather than EU-12 values. Once other factors are allowed for, a systematic and highly significant factor determining rates of urban population growth is climatic variation. Cities with better weather than that of their countries have systematically tended to gain population over the past 20 years once other factors - including natural rates of increase in the areas of each country outside the major cities - are allowed for: there is no such effect for climate variables if expressed relative to the value of the EU-12 as a whole. On the other hand, there is evidence that the systematic spatial gains from European integration are reflected in a city's population growth, as are systematic differences in their economic inheritance and the degree to which their economies interact with those of neighbouring cities. The results are tested for spatial dependence and remain robust. Growth, Cities, Quality-of-life differences, Mobility, Migration CHESHIRE P. C. and MAGRINI S. (2006) La croissance de la population dans les grandes villes europeennes: le climat n'a pas d'importance que sur le plan national, Regional Studies 40, 23-37. Cet article cherche a etudier les ecarts du taux de croissance de la population a travers les grandes regions-cites de l'Union europeenne a 12 entre 1980 et l'an 2000. Le modele americain, qui suppose la mobilite parfaite des facteurs de production, ne semble pas bien adapte aux conditions europeennes. De fortes preuves laissent supposer qu'il est difficile d'equilibrer les flux migratoires intervilles dans les divers pays de l'Ue. Cependant, la qualite de la vie semble etre un facteur a la fois significatif et important de la variation des taux de croissance de la population si l'on les mesure par rapport aux valeurs nationales plutot qu'aux valeurs de l'Ue a 12. Compte tenu d'autres facteurs, un determinant systematique et tres significatif de la croissance de la population urbaine s'avere le changement du climat. Les grandes villes dont le climat s'avere mieux que celui du pays ont eu systematiquement tendance a augmenter leur population sur les vingt dernieres annees, compte tenu d'autres facteurs - a savoir le taux de croissance naturel des zones de chaque pays situees en dehors des grandes villes majeures: il n'y a pas de tel effet si les variables relatives au climat s'expriment par rapport a la valeur globale de l'Ue a 12. D'autre part, tout indique que les gains geographiques systematiques qui proviennent de l'integration europeenne se refletent dans la croissance de la population d'une grande ville ainsi que les differences systematiques de leur patrimoine economique et le point auquel leur economie agit sur l'economie des grandes villes voisines. On analyse les resultats pour determiner la dependance geographique, et ils restent solides. Croissance, Grandes villes, Differences de la qualite de la vie, Mobilite, Migration CHESHIRE P. C. and MAGRINI S. (2006) Bevolkerungszunahme in europaischen Stadten: Wetter ist wichtig, doch nur innerhalb der Staatsgrenzen, Regional Studies 40, 23-37. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht Unterschiede in der Wachstumsrate der „Bevolkerung in den Grossstadtregionen der EU-12 im Zeitraum 1980-2000. Das Modell der USA, das vollkommene Mobilitat der Faktoren „voraussetzt, scheint europaischen Verhaltnissen nicht ganz gerecht zu werden. Es gibt Anzeichen, die entschieden vermuten lassen, dass einander aufwiegende Wanderungsstrome zwischen Stadten verschiedener Nationalstaaten in der EU streng beschrankt sind. Motive der Lebensqualitaten scheinen jedoch ein signifikantes und wichtiges Merkmal der Bevolkerungszuwachsraten zu sein, solange sie eher im Vergleich mit landesstaatlichen als den EU-12 - Werten gemessen werden. Wenn man andere Faktoren berucksichtigt, werden klimatische Unterschiede zu einem systematischen und hochsignifikanten Faktor, der die Raten stadtischer Bevolkerungszunahme bestimmt. Stadte mit besserem Wetter als dem ihrer Lander zeigten wahrend der letzten 20 Jahre eine „systematische Tendenz zu Bevolkerungszuwachs auf, solange andere Faktoren - einschliesslich naturlicher Vermehrungsraten in den Gebieten jeden Landes ausserhalb der grosseren Stadte - einbezogen werden: es gibt keinen derartigen Effekt fur Klimavariable, wenn sie im Verhaltnis zum Wert der gesamten EU-12 ausgedruckt werden. Andrerseits gibt es Anzeichen, dass die systematischen Raumvorteile, die europaische Integration mit sich bringt, sich im Bevolkerungszuwachs einer Stadt widerspiegeln, wie auch die systematischen Unterschiede in ihrem wirtschaftlichen Erbe, und in den Ausmass, in dem ihre Wirtschaften auf die benachtbarter Stadte einwirken. Die Ergebnisse werden auf raumliche Abhangigkeit gepruft, und bleiben stabil. Stadtische, landliche und regionale Wirtschaften: regionale Wanderung, regionale Arbeitsmarkte, Bevolkerung, Mathematische und quantitative Methoden CHESHIRE P. C. and MAGRINI S. (2006) Crecimiento de la poblacion en ciudades europeas: el clima importa, pero solo a nivel nacional, Regional Studies 40, 23-37. En este ensayo se investigan que diferencias existen en la tasa de crecimiento de la poblacion en regiones de grandes ciudades de la UE12 entre 1980 y 2000. El modelo de los Estados Unidos, que supone una movilidad perfecta de factores, no parece que encaje bien con las condiciones de Europa. Existen pruebas que indican claramente que los flujos de migracion equilibrada entre ciudades de diferentes paises estan muy limitados en la Union Europea. No obstante, parece que el motivo de la calidad de vida es una caracteristica significativa e importante a tener en cuenta en las tasas de crecimiento de la poblacion diferencial si es medido en funcion de valores naciones y no segun valores de la UE12. Cuando se permiten otros factores, uno de los factores sistematicos mas significativos para determinar las tasas de crecimiento de la poblacion urbana es la variacion climatica. Las ciudades que gozan de mejor clima que otras zonas del pais mostraron una tendencia sistematica a ganar poblacion en los ultimos 20 anos si se incluyen otros factores, por ejemplo las tasas de aumento naturales en areas de los paises lejos de las ciudades principales: no existe tal efecto para las variables climaticas si se expresa con relacion al valor de EU-12 en su conjunto. Por otra parte, existen pruebas de que el sistematico incremento espacial causado por la integracion europea queda reflejado en un crecimiento de la poblacion en las ciudades, y lo mismo ocurre con las diferencias sistematicas en sus herencias economicas y el grado en que interactuan sus economias con las de las ciudades vecinas. Hemos comprobado los resultados con respecto a la dependencia espacial y no varian. Crecimiento, Ciudades, Diferencias en la calidad de vida, Movilidad, Migracion

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2006. "Population growth in European cities: Weather matters - but only nationally," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 23-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:40:y:2006:i:1:p:23-37
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400500449259
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