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Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market

Author

Listed:
  • David Duffy

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • John FitzGerald

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • Ide Kearney

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

In this paper we explore the consequences of the recent steep rise in house prices for the openness of the Irish labour market. Specifically we look at the possible effect rising house prices may have on the migration decision. Since many immigrants are in the household formation age group, and tend to be highly skilled, we argue that the boom in house prices, by reducing the attractiveness of Ireland for potential immigrants, could reduce labour supply. Thus housing emerges as an important infrastructural constraint affecting the labour market. To formulate the role of house prices in the migration decision we use a structural model of the determination of output, labour supply and labour demand in Ireland. We modify the basic model in a number of ways: firstly we endogenise the determination of house prices using structural equations for the demand and supply of housing; secondly we separate out the user cost of housing in the migrant's cost of living index; and thirdly we endogenise the determination of consumer prices. Simulation results suggest that rising house prices, by discouraging potential migrants, could significantly reduce the growth potential of the economy, shifting the balance of labour market growth from employment to wages, with a consequent deterioration in competitiveness. The welfare effects of this differ for different groups; there are unambiguous gains for current home owners while immigrants, first time buyers and those with lower labour market skills are net losers.

Suggested Citation

  • David Duffy & John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP166, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp166
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. O'Connell, Philip J. & Russell, Helen & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Human Resources," Book Chapters,in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.), Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, April.
    3. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Iulia Siedschlag, 2008. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/3 edited by Morten Balling.
    5. Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2011. "Scenarios for Irish House Prices," Economic Letters 02/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
    7. repec:hig:fsight:v:11:y:2017:i:1:p:42-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John (ed.), 2006. "Ex-ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS59.
    9. Ray Barrell & John Fitzgerald & Rebecca Riley, 2010. "EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 373-395, March.
    10. Patrick Honohan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2006. "Ireland in EMU - More Shocks, Less Insulation?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 263-294.
    11. Fahey, Tony & Russell, Helen & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Childcare," Book Chapters,in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.), Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Honohan, Patrick, 2009. "Resolving Ireland’s Banking Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 207-231.
    13. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters,in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.), Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters,in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.), Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    16. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Productive Sector," Book Chapters,in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.), Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 20, pages 257-277 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Alan Barrett & Adele Bergin, 2009. "Estimating the Impact of Immigration in Ireland," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 35, pages 1-2.
    18. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    19. Tate, Robert & Finlayson, Greg & MacWilliam, Leonard & Wiley, Miriam M. & Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Health," Book Chapters,in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.), Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Francesca D'Auria & Kieran Mc Morrow & Karl Pichelmann, 2008. "Economic impact of migration flows following the 2004 EU enlargement process - A model based analysis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 349, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, April.
    22. Fahey, Tony & Scott, Susan & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Sports and Arts," Book Chapters,in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.), Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    23. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    24. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John & Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2006. "Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Forecasts and Policy Analysis, Autumn Report 2006," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number sustat22.

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    Keywords

    housing; labour market; migration;

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