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Modelling the Impact of Fundamentals on County Housing Markets in Ireland

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  • Morgenroth, Edgar

Abstract

Ireland experienced a recent boom-bust cycle in the housing market. While the housing market in Ireland has been analysed at the national level there has been no research on the relationship between fundamentals and the housing market at the sub-national level. In this paper the spatial distribution of household changes is projected for the period 2011 to 2021 and this is used to consider the impact on housing demand, taking into account the significant overhang of vacant properties. Given the assumptions used the demographic projections indicate that the growth in number of households will be concentrate in and around the large cities and particularly Dublin. Given a smaller vacant stock and the projected growth in conjunction with small number of housing completions implies that the Greater Dublin Region will experience housing shortages. Formal modelling of the change in house prices, the stock of housing and the vacancy rate confirms that fundamental drivers are important in shaping these variables. Importantly, the estimated parameters confirm the emerging shortage of housing in Dublin and predict consequent strong growth in house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Modelling the Impact of Fundamentals on County Housing Markets in Ireland," MPRA Paper 57665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Morley, Ciara & Foley, Daniel, 2016. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2016," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20161, February.
    2. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Housing Supply and House Price Trends at the County Level," Research Notes RN2016/1/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis," Research Notes RN2014/2/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2019. "Assessing price sustainability in the Irish housing market: A county-level analysis," Research Notes RN20190401, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Byrne, David & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice," Research Notes RN2014/2/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Cross Country Residential Investment Rates and the Implications for the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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