IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/57665.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the Impact of Fundamentals on County Housing Markets in Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Morgenroth, Edgar

Abstract

Ireland experienced a recent boom-bust cycle in the housing market. While the housing market in Ireland has been analysed at the national level there has been no research on the relationship between fundamentals and the housing market at the sub-national level. In this paper the spatial distribution of household changes is projected for the period 2011 to 2021 and this is used to consider the impact on housing demand, taking into account the significant overhang of vacant properties. Given the assumptions used the demographic projections indicate that the growth in number of households will be concentrate in and around the large cities and particularly Dublin. Given a smaller vacant stock and the projected growth in conjunction with small number of housing completions implies that the Greater Dublin Region will experience housing shortages. Formal modelling of the change in house prices, the stock of housing and the vacancy rate confirms that fundamental drivers are important in shaping these variables. Importantly, the estimated parameters confirm the emerging shortage of housing in Dublin and predict consequent strong growth in house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Modelling the Impact of Fundamentals on County Housing Markets in Ireland," MPRA Paper 57665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57665/1/MPRA_paper_57665.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronan C. Lyons, 2015. "East, west, boom and bust: the spread of house prices and rents in Ireland, 2007-2012," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 77-101, March.
    2. McCoy, Daniel & Duffy, David & Bergin, Adele & Garrett, Shane & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2005. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2005," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20051.
    3. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    4. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2008. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Demand for and Delivery of Health Services in Ireland 2006-2021: Report 2: Demographic Projections for the period until 2021," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT166.
    5. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20141.
    6. Brady, Ryan R., 2014. "The spatial diffusion of regional housing prices across U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 150-166.
    7. FitzGerald, John & Byrne, David & Znuderl, Nusa, 2011. "The Impact of Changes in Educational Attainment on Life Expectancy in Ireland," Papers WP414, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2006. "Economic Fundamentals in Local Housing Markets: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt79d325cm, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    9. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
    10. Goodman, John L, Jr, 1998. "Aggregation of Local Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-53, January.
    11. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August.
    12. Todd Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2011. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-temporal Analysis Using US State-level Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 563-574.
    13. FitzGerald, John, 2005. "The Irish Housing Stock: Growth in Number of Vacant Dwellings," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2005(1-Spring), pages 1-22.
    14. Duffy, David & Byrne, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Alternative Scenarios for New Household Formation in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Edgar Morgenroth, 2002. "Evaluating Methods for Short to Medium Term County Population Forecasting," Papers WP143, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 425-453, August.
    17. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Morley, Ciara & Foley, Daniel, 2016. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2016," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20161.
    2. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Housing Supply and House Price Trends at the County Level," Research Notes RN2016/1/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis," Research Notes RN2014/2/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2019. "Assessing price sustainability in the Irish housing market: A county-level analysis," Research Notes RN20190401, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Byrne, David & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice," Research Notes RN2014/2/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Cross Country Residential Investment Rates and the Implications for the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis," Research Notes RN2014/2/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2018. "Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS70.
    3. David Byrne & David Duffy & John FitzGerald, 2018. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice: Did the Great Irish Housing Bust Alter Consumer Behaviour?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 287-317.
    4. Arno Vlist & Daniel Czamanski & Henk Folmer, 2011. "Immigration and urban housing market dynamics: the case of Haifa," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(3), pages 585-598, December.
    5. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Ioannides, Yannis M. & (Wirathip) Thanapisitikul, Win, 2016. "Spatial effects and house price dynamics in the USA," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "Investigating regional house price convergence in the United States: Evidence from a pair-wise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2369-2376.
    7. Anthony Owusu-Ansah, 2012. "Modelling the supply of new residential construction for local housing markets and estimation of housing supply price elasticities: The case of Aberdeen, UK," ERES eres2012_097, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Linking U.S. State-level housing market returns, and the consumption-(Dis)Aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 779-810.
    9. Ryan R. Brady, 2011. "Measuring the diffusion of housing prices across space and over time," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 213-231, March.
    10. Qingyu, Zhu, 2010. "Regional unemployment and house price determination," MPRA Paper 41785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2016. "Differences in housing price dynamics across cities: A comparison of different panel model specifications," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(11), pages 2312-2329, August.
    12. David Duffy & John Fitz Gerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 251-272.
    13. Hussain Mohammed A. Al Obaid, 2020. "Factors Determining Housing Demand in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 150-157.
    14. Biktimirov, Ernest N. & Sokolyk, Tatyana & Ayanso, Anteneh, 2024. "Unpacking the relation between media sentiment and house prices: A topic modeling approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Jorge Chica-Olmo & Rafael Cano-Guervos & Mario Chica-Rivas, 2019. "Estimation of Housing Price Variations Using Spatio-Temporal Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Elias Oikarinen & Janne Engblom, 2012. "Regional differences in housing price dynamics: panel data evidence," ERES eres2012_059, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    17. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
    18. Brady, Ryan R., 2014. "The spatial diffusion of regional housing prices across U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 150-166.
    19. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lee, Yen Hsien & Wu, Meng-Wen & Guo, Na, 2016. "Does housing boom lead to credit boom or is it the other way around? The case of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 349-367.
    20. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Teo, Wing Leong, 2011. "Should the optimal portfolio be region-specific? A multi-region model with monetary policy and asset price co-movements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 293-304, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57665. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.