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Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain

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  • Muellbauer, John
  • Murphy, Anthony
  • Cameron, Gavin

Abstract

Economic conditions exert a strong influence on regional migration. On the one hand, strong labour market conditions, as exemplified by low unemployment rates and high earnings, draw migrants into regions. On the other hand, strong housing market conditions can prevent movement since expensive housing can deter migrants and commuting may often be an alternative. This can be thought of as giving rise to a migration equilibrium, where high house prices choke off migration caused by strong labour market conditions. Expected capital gains in housing and expected earnings growth however, can offset high levels of house prices, effects ignored in previous literature. Migration can also be influenced more directly by the availability of housing relative to population without this being mediated through prices. This paper presents evidence from a 28 year panel on net and gross migration for the regions of Britain that is broadly in accord with these expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony & Cameron, Gavin, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 5832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5832
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Rainer & Ian Smith, 2010. "Staying together for the sake of the home?: house price shocks and partnership dissolution in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(3), pages 557-574, July.
    2. Wouter Vermeulen & Jos Van Ommeren, 2009. "Compensation of Regional Unemployment in Housing Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 71-88, February.
    3. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
    4. Henry Overman & Patricia Rice & Anthony Venables, 2010. "Economic Linkages across Space," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 17-33.
    5. Fredrik Carlsen & Kåre Johansen & Lasse Sigbjørn Stambøl, 2013. "Effects of Regional Labour Markets on Migration Flows, by Education Level," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 27(1), pages 80-92, March.
    6. Birgitta Rabe & Mark P. Taylor, 2012. "Differences in Opportunities? Wage, Employment and House-Price Effects on Migration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(6), pages 831-855, December.
    7. Birgitta Rabe, 2011. "Dual-earner migration. Earnings gains, employment and self-selection," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 477-497, April.
    8. Vermeulen, Wouter & van Ommeren, Jos, 2009. "Does land use planning shape regional economies? A simultaneous analysis of housing supply, internal migration and local employment growth in the Netherlands," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 294-310, December.
    9. Helmut Rainer & Ian Smith, 2010. "Staying together for the sake of the home?: house price shocks and partnership dissolution in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(3), pages 557-574, July.
    10. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Kaplanis, Ioannis, 2011. "Flexible employment and cross- regional adjustment," Working Papers 2072/179671, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    11. Michiel van Leuvensteijn & Thomas de Graaff, 2007. "The impact of housing market institutions on labour mobility; a European cross-country comparison," CPB Discussion Paper 82.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Hu, Zhigao & Zhang, Yan & Cao, Jianhua & Zhou, Ke, 2022. "Longing for the Blue Sky: Urban air quality and the individual decision to immigrate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Anil Rupasingha & Yongzheng Liu & Mark Partridge, 2015. "Rural Bound: Determinants of Metro to Non-Metro Migration in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(3), pages 680-700.
    14. Lukas Felix Götzelmann & Ferdinand Mager & Kerstin Hennig, 2023. "Move, Stay, or Pay: The Impact of Land Prices on Migration Balances in Germany," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(4), pages 519-547.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional migration; House prices; Expected capital gains; Contiguity; Great britain; Regional panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J19 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Other
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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