IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v97y2015i3p680-700..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rural Bound: Determinants of Metro to Non-Metro Migration in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Anil Rupasingha
  • Yongzheng Liu
  • Mark Partridge

Abstract

A general global precept is that agglomeration forces lead to migration from rural to urban areas. Yet for much of the time since the early 1970s, more people have moved from metro to nonmetro U.S. counties. The underlying causes of this pattern have changed over time with economic shocks and changing household preferences. For instance, the post 2000 period has seen a significant decline in domestic migration rates, a significant increase in commodity prices that favor rural areas, and potential changes in the valuation of natural amenities that would affect migration. This article investigates the determinants of U.S. gross migration from metro to nonmetro counties and nonmetro to metro counties for the 1995-2000 and 2005-2009 periods in order to compare the differences in rural to urban and urban to rural migration, as well as compare the 1990s to the 2005-2009 periods. More specifically, the present study extends the literature by more broadly examining the underlying factors associated with deconcentration and economic restructuring arguments of metro to nonmetro migration. The article uses (1) extensive county-to-county migration flows and (2) the utility maximization theory that extends the framework of a discrete choice model. The results show that population density, distance to urban areas, industry mix employment growth, natural amenities, and percentage of older people are key factors underlying these migration patterns. We also find a slight fading of effects of natural amenities and population density, and a slight increase in the effects of wage and employment growth from 2005-2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Anil Rupasingha & Yongzheng Liu & Mark Partridge, 2015. "Rural Bound: Determinants of Metro to Non-Metro Migration in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(3), pages 680-700.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:97:y:2015:i:3:p:680-700.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aau113
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2008. "Lost in space: population growth in the American hinterlands and small cities," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(6), pages 727-757, November.
    2. Brian Cushing & Jacques Poot, 2003. "Crossing boundaries and borders: Regional science advances in migration modelling," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 83(1), pages 317-338, October.
    3. Rudzitis, Gundars, 1999. "Amenities Increasingly Draw People to the Rural West," Rural America/ Rural Development Perspectives, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 14(2), September.
    4. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-1390, December.
    5. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    6. Josep‐Maria Arauzo‐Carod & Daniel Liviano‐Solis & Miguel Manjón‐Antolín, 2010. "Empirical Studies In Industrial Location: An Assessment Of Their Methods And Results," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 685-711, August.
    7. Mark D. Partridge & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2010. "Rural‐to‐Urban Commuting: Three Degrees of Integration," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 303-335, June.
    8. Jensen, Tomas & Deller, Steven, 2007. "Spatial Modeling of the Migration of Older People with a Focus on Amenities," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 37(3), pages 303-343.
    9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    10. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," Economics Series Working Papers 275, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, july-dece.
    13. Paul S. Davies & Michael J. Greenwood & Haizheng Li, 2001. "A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State‐to‐State Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 337-360, May.
    14. Steven C. Deller & Tsung-Hsiu (Sue) Tsai & David W. Marcouiller & Donald B.K. English, 2001. "The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life In Rural Economic Growth," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 352-365.
    15. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent & Roux, Sébastien, 2012. "Sorting and local wage and skill distributions in France," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 913-930.
    16. Daveri, Francesco & Faini, Riccardo, 1999. "Where Do Migrants Go?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 595-622, October.
    17. Josep Maria Arauzo Carod & Miguel C. ManjÛn AntolÌn, 2004. "Firm Size and Geographical Aggregation: An Empirical Appraisal in Industrial Location," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3_4), pages 299-312, April.
    18. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent & Roux, Sébastien, 2012. "Sorting and local wage and skill distributions in France," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 913-930.
    19. Juan Pablo Juarez, 2000. "Analysis of Interregional Labor Migration in Spain Using Gross Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 377-399, May.
    20. Etzo, Ivan, 2010. "The determinants of the recent interregional migration flows in Italy: A panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 26245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Cromartie, John B., 1998. "Net Migration in the Great Plains Increasingly Linked to Natural Amenities and Suburbanization," Rural America/ Rural Development Perspectives, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 13(1), February.
    22. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Ali, Kamar, 2012. "Dwindling U.S. internal migration: Evidence of spatial equilibrium or structural shifts in local labor markets?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 375-388.
    23. Knapp, Thomas A. & Graves, Philip E., 1989. "On the role of amenities in models of migration and regional development," MPRA Paper 19914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416-416.
    25. Mulugeta S. Kahsai & Tesfa G. Gebremedhin & Peter V. Schaeffer, 2011. "A Spatial Analysis Of Amenity And Regional Economic Growth In Northeast Region," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2‐3), pages 77-93, July.
    26. Dan S. Rickman & Shane D. Rickman, 2011. "Population Growth In High‐Amenity Nonmetropolitan Areas: What'S The Prognosis?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(5), pages 863-879, December.
    27. Stark, Oded & Levhari, David, 1982. "On Migration and Risk in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 191-196, October.
    28. W. Mark Brown & Darren M. Scott, 2012. "Human Capital Location Choice: Accounting For Amenities And Thick Labor Markets," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(5), pages 787-808, December.
    29. Christiadi & Brian Cushing, 2006. "The Joint Choice of an Individual's Occupation and Destination," Working Papers Research Paper 2006-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    30. Christiadi & Brian Cushing, 2008. "The Joint Choice Of An Individual'S Occupation And Destination," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 893-919, December.
    31. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Stark, Oded, 1989. "Consumption Smoothing, Migration, and Marriage: Evidence from Rural India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 905-926, August.
    32. Hansen, Eric R., 1987. "Industrial location choice in Sao Paulo, Brazil : A nested logit model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-108, February.
    33. Mohammad Arzaghi & Anil Rupasingha, 2013. "Migration As A Way To Diversify: Evidence From Rural To Urban Migration In The U.S," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 690-711, October.
    34. Guimaraes, Paulo & Figueiredo, Octavio & Woodward, Douglas, 2000. "Agglomeration and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment in Portugal," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-135, January.
    35. Ivan Etzo, 2011. "The Determinants Of The Recent Interregional Migration Flows In Italy: A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(5), pages 948-966, December.
    36. Mueser Peter R. & Graves Philip E., 1995. "Examining the Role of Economic Opportunity and Amenities in Explaining Population Redistribution," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 176-200, March.
    37. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-198, June.
    38. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
    39. Todd M. Gabe & Kathleen P. Bell, 2004. "Tradeoffs between Local Taxes and Government Spending as Determinants of Business Location," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 21-41, February.
    40. Stephen J. Goetz, 1999. "Migration and Local Labor Markets," Wholbk, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, number 22, July-Sept.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Craig Wesley Carpenter & Scott Loveridge, 2019. "A spatial model of growth relationships and Latino-owned business," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(3), pages 541-557, December.
    2. Celia Melguizo Cháfe & Vicente Royuela, 2017. "“What drives migration moves across urban areas in Spain?. Evidence from the Great Recession”," AQR Working Papers 201709, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2017.
    3. Marre, Alexander W. & Rupasingha, Anil, 2016. "School Quality and the Urban-Rural Migration of Firms," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235965, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Jonathan Eyer & Robert Dinterman & Noah Miller & Adam Rose, 2018. "The Effect of Disasters on Migration Destinations: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 91-106, April.
    5. Craig Wesley Carpenter & F. Carson Mencken & Charles M. Tolbert & Michael Lotspeich, 2018. "Locally Owned Bank Commuting Zone Concentration and Employer Start-Ups in Metropolitan, Micropolitan and Non-Core Rural Commuting Zones from 1970-2010," Working Papers 18-34, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Ramsey, Ford & Sonoda, Tadashi, 2015. "Productivity and Exits from Farming in Japan," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205122, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Heike Mayer & Antoine Habersetzer & Rahel Meili, 2016. "Rural–Urban Linkages and Sustainable Regional Development: The Role of Entrepreneurs in Linking Peripheries and Centers," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(8), pages 1-13, August.
    8. Viola von Berlepsch & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2019. "The missing ingredient: Distance - Internal migration and its long-term economic impact in the United States," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1903, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jan 2019.
    9. Karen Maguire & John V. Winters, 2017. "Energy Boom and Gloom? Local Effects of Oil and Natural Gas Drilling on Subjective Well†Being," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 590-610, December.
    10. Vicente Royuela & Jessica Ordóñez, 2018. "Internal migration in a developing country: A panel data analysis of Ecuador (1982‐2010)," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(2), pages 345-367, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:97:y:2015:i:3:p:680-700.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.