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The determinants of the recent interregional migration flows in Italy: A panel data analysis

  • Etzo, Ivan
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    The present study investigates the determinants of interregional migration flows in Italy in the light of the upsurge occurred in 1996, after two decades of decreasing internal migration rates. We apply the fixed effect vector decomposition estimator (FEVD) on a gravity model using bilateral migration flows for the period 1996-2005 and show that it improves the estimates with respect to the traditional panel data estimators. We find that omitting distance and in presence of rarely time invariant covariates (e.g., population and income) the standard panel data models significantly bias the estimates. The overall economic level and the probability to find a job (proxied by per capita GDP and unemployment rate) appear to be the key variables whose changes are able to push flows of migrants away from their regions and to direct them to “better off” destinations. We find that migrants leaving the regions in the Centre-North respond differently to the push and pull forces with respect to southern migrants. We then estimate a dynamic model and find evidence for the presence of social networks which in our model take place between each pair of regions.

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26245/1/MPRA_paper_26245.pdf
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26245.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26245
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    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    2. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin-Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967.
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    6. Faini, Riccardo & Galli, Giampaolo & Gennari, Pietro & Rossi, Fulvio, 1997. "An empirical puzzle: Falling migration and growing unemployment differentials among Italian regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 571-579, April.
    7. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2003. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia: evidence from panel data," Working Papers w0027, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
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    10. Davide Furceri, 2006. "Does labour respond to cyclical fluctuations? The case of Italy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 135-139.
    11. Stefano Fachin, 2005. "Long-Run Trends in Internal Migrations in Italy: a Study in Panel Cointegration with Dependent Units," Econometrics 0507002, EconWPA.
    12. Francesco Daveri & Riccardo Faini, . "Where do migrants go?," Working Papers 124, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    15. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
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