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Internal migration in a developing country: A panel data analysis of Ecuador (1982‐2010)

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  • Vicente Royuela
  • Jessica Ordóñez

Abstract

In this paper, we examine determinants of internal migration flows between the 21 provinces of Ecuador from 1982 to 2010. Using specifications based on the gravity model, we identified push and pull factors. We considered multilateral resistance to migration by using various monadic and dyadic fixed effects structures. The study confirmed the concentration of the population in the two provinces that contain the country's main cities. However, in recent years, this trend has weakened, to the extent that the provinces with the greatest influx of migrants are not necessarily the most populated. This indicates that growth has become more balanced throughout the territory, and that small and medium‐sized cities are increasingly important. En este documento se estudian los determinantes de los flujos de migración interna entre las 21 provincias de Ecuador, desde 1982 a 2010. Mediante especificaciones basadas en el modelo de gravedad, se identificaron los factores de incentivo y de atracción. Se consideró la resistencia multilateral a la migración mediante el uso de diversas estructuras monádicas y diádicas de efectos fijos. El estudio confirmó la concentración de la población en las dos provincias que contienen las principales ciudades del país. Sin embargo, esta tendencia se ha debilitado en los últimos años, en la medida en que las provincias con mayor afluencia de migrantes no son necesariamente las más pobladas. Esto indica que el crecimiento se ha vuelto más equilibrado a lo largo del territorio, y que las ciudades pequeñas y medianas son cada vez más importantes. 本稿では、1982年から2010年のエクアドルにおける21の県間の移住フローの決定因子を検討する。重力モデルに基づいた仕様を用いて、プッシュ要因とプル要因を同定する。様々な、単項および2項の固定効果の構造を用いて、移住に対する多県間の抵抗を検討する。研究からエクアドルの主要都市がある2つの県に人口が集中していることが確認された。しかし、近年では、人口流入が最も多い県が必ずしも最も人口が多いとは限らないほどにまで、このトレンドが弱くなってきている。これは、人口の増加率が国土全体で均等になってきたことと小~中規模の都市がより重要になってきていることを示している。

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  • Vicente Royuela & Jessica Ordóñez, 2018. "Internal migration in a developing country: A panel data analysis of Ecuador (1982‐2010)," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(2), pages 345-367, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:97:y:2018:i:2:p:345-367
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12251
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    4. Obaco, Moisés & Royuela, Vicente & Matano, Alessia, 2021. "On the link between material deprivation and city size: Ecuador as a case study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

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