IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v68y2025i5d10.1007_s00181-024-02697-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining interregional migration trends in developed countries: a regional perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Maximiliano Alvarez

    (The University of Queensland)

  • Aude Bernard

    (The University of Queensland)

  • Scott N. Lieske

    (The University of Queensland)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to determine the role of economic and sociodemographic changes in driving trends in interregional migration rates in developed countries. Regional-level annual panel data of bilateral migration, economic and sociodemographic factors for a sample of eight European and non-European developed countries (2000–2019) are used to estimate dynamic heterogeneous and cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag panel regressions. Results reveal country-specific contributions of aggregate economic and sociodemographic transformations are a consequence of within-country heterogeneous temporal variations and origin–destination long-run linkages with bilateral migration flows. The findings emphasize the key role of economic and sociodemographic spatiotemporal variations on long-run overall interregional migration through spatially reconfiguring attractiveness and populations' migratory propensity and offer an explanation for the puzzling cross-country heterogeneity in interregional migration trends among countries with comparable national economic and sociodemographic transformations.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximiliano Alvarez & Aude Bernard & Scott N. Lieske, 2025. "Explaining interregional migration trends in developed countries: a regional perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(5), pages 2413-2453, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:68:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s00181-024-02697-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-024-02697-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-024-02697-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-024-02697-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthieu Crozet, 2004. "Do migrants follow market potentials? An estimation of a new economic geography model," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 439-458, August.
    2. Berry, Christopher R. & Glaeser, Edward L., 2005. "Divergence of Human Capital Levels across Cities," Working Paper Series rwp05-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    4. Paula Prenzel, 2021. "Are old regions less attractive? Interregional labour migration in a context of population ageing," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(6), pages 1429-1447, December.
    5. Thomas B. Foster, 2017. "Decomposing American immobility: Compositional and rate components of interstate, intrastate, and intracounty migration and mobility decline," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(47), pages 1515-1548.
    6. Nicole Van Der Gaag & Leo Van Wissen, 2008. "Economic Determinants Of Internal Migration Rates: A Comparison Across Five European Countries," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 99(2), pages 209-222, April.
    7. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    8. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do Local Amenities Affect The Appeal Of Regions In Europe For Migrants?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 535-561, October.
    9. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    10. Coen-Pirani, Daniele, 2010. "Understanding gross worker flows across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 769-784, October.
    11. Graves, Philip E., 1983. "Migration with a composite amenity: the role of rents," MPRA Paper 19917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. David E. Clark & William E. Herrin & Thomas A. Knapp & Nancy E. White, 2003. "Migration and implicit amenity markets: does incomplete compensation matter?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 289-307, July.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    14. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    15. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Romano Piras, 2021. "Migration flows by educational attainment: Disentangling the heterogeneous role of push and pull factors," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 515-542, June.
    17. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, 2017. "Understanding The Long‐Run Decline In Interstate Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 57-94, February.
    18. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
    19. Luigi Cannari & Francesco Nucci & Paolo Sestito, 2000. "Geographic labour mobility and the cost of housing: evidence from Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(14), pages 1899-1906.
    20. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The divergence of human capital levels across cities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(3), pages 407-444, August.
    21. Gaetano Basso & Giovanni Peri, 2020. "Internal Mobility: The Greater Responsiveness of Foreign-Born to Economic Conditions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 77-98, Summer.
    22. Bianca Biagi & Alessandra Faggian & Philip McCann, 2011. "Long and Short Distance Migration in Italy: The Role of Economic, Social and Environmental Characteristics," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 111-131.
    23. María Gutiérrez-Portilla & Adolfo Maza & María Hierro, 2018. "Foreigners versus natives in Spain: different migration patterns? Any changes in the aftermath of the crisis?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(1), pages 139-159, July.
    24. Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe, 2018. "Immigration and internal mobility in Canada," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 69-106, January.
    25. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Divergence of Human Capital Levels Across Cities," NBER Working Papers 11617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Maximiliano Alvarez & Vicente Royuela, 2022. "The effect of labor‐market differentials on interregional migration in Spain: A meta‐regression analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 913-937, September.
    27. Mocetti, Sauro & Porello, Carmine, 2010. "How does immigration affect native internal mobility? New evidence from Italy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 427-439, November.
    28. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    29. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    30. Rebecca Diamond, 2016. "The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980-2000," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 479-524, March.
    31. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    32. repec:sae:mrxval:v:30:y:1996:i:3:p:728-747 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Aude Bernard & Martin Bell & Elin Charles-Edwards, 2014. "Life-Course Transitions and the Age Profile of Internal Migration," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 213-239, June.
    34. Robert Bozick, 2021. "Age, period, and cohort effects contributing to the Great American Migration Slowdown," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(42), pages 1269-1296.
    35. Hill Kulu & Emma Lundholm & Gunnar Malmberg, 2018. "Is spatial mobility on the rise or in decline? An order-specific analysis of the migration of young adults in Sweden," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(3), pages 323-337, September.
    36. Aude Bernard & Martin Bell, 2018. "Educational selectivity of internal migrants: A global assessment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(29), pages 835-854.
    37. Graves, Philip E., 1980. "Migration and climate," MPRA Paper 19916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Mark Ferguson & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert & Mark Partridge, 2007. "Voting with Their Feet: Jobs versus Amenities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 77-110, March.
    39. Korpi, Martin & Clark, William A.V., 2015. "Internal migration and human capital theory: To what extent is it selective?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 31-34.
    40. Thomas Niedomysl, 2011. "How Migration Motives Change over Migration Distance: Evidence on Variation across Socio-economic and Demographic Groups," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 843-855.
    41. Adolfo Maza, 2020. "Internal Migration in Spain: A Complementary Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-19, July.
    42. Simone Bertoli & J. Fernandes-Huertas Moraga, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Post-Print halshs-00820169, HAL.
    43. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, 2017. "Understanding The Long‐Run Decline In Interstate Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(1), pages 57-94, February.
    44. Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
    45. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Divergence of Human Capital Levels across Cities," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2091, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    46. Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2021. "Gravity models of interprovincial migration flows in Canada with hierarchical multifactor structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 365-390, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maximiliano Alvarez & Vicente Royuela, 2022. "The effect of labor‐market differentials on interregional migration in Spain: A meta‐regression analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 913-937, September.
    2. María Gutiérrez-Portilla & Adolfo Maza & María Hierro, 2018. "Foreigners versus natives in Spain: different migration patterns? Any changes in the aftermath of the crisis?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(1), pages 139-159, July.
    3. Bergantino, Angela Stefania & Clemente, Antonello & Iandolo, Stefano & Turati, Riccardo, 2025. "Shaped by Urban-Rural Divide and Skill: The Drivers of Internal Mobility in Italy," IZA Discussion Papers 18203, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Vicente Royuela & Jessica Ordóñez, 2018. "Internal migration in a developing country: A panel data analysis of Ecuador (1982‐2010)," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(2), pages 345-367, June.
    5. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, 2017. "Understanding The Long‐Run Decline In Interstate Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 57-94, February.
    6. Alejandro Steven Fonseca-Zendejas & Carmen Borrego-Salcido & M. Carmen Delgado, 2025. "Internal migration in Spain: identifying key drivers for forecasting," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(2), pages 1-23, June.
    7. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Moritz Meister & Annekatrin Niebuhr & Jan Cornelius Peters & Johannes Stiller, 2023. "Local attributes and migration balance – evidence for different age and skill groups from a machine learning approach," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 794-825, May.
    9. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, 2017. "Understanding The Long‐Run Decline In Interstate Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(1), pages 57-94, February.
    10. Ryan M. Gallagher & Joseph Persky, 2020. "Heterogeneity of birth‐state effects on internal migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 517-537, June.
    11. Arthur Grimes & Shaan Badenhorst & David C. Maré & Jacques Poot, 2020. "Hometown wh?nau or big city millennials? The economic geography of graduate destination choices in New Zealand," Motu Working Papers 20_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    12. Romano Piras, 2017. "A long-run analysis of push and pull factors of internal migration in Italy. Estimation of a gravity model with human capital using homogeneous and heterogeneous approaches," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 571-602, August.
    13. Ernest Miguélez & Rosina Moreno, 2014. "What Attracts Knowledge Workers? The Role Of Space And Social Networks," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 33-60, January.
    14. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    15. repec:elg:eechap:14395_22 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jun Yeong Lee & John V. Winters, 2024. "Too Cold to Venture There? January Temperature and Immigrant Self-Employment Across the United States," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 38(4), pages 249-270, November.
    17. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    18. Alessandra Faggian & Rachel S. Franklin, 2014. "Human Capital Redistribution in the USA: The Migration of the College-bound," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 376-395, October.
    19. Benjamin Wirth, 2013. "Ranking German regions using interregional migration - What does internal migration tells us about regional well-being?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1254, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Xizan Jin & Hongfei Yu & Fangxin Yi & Lili Chen & Song Wang, 2022. "Tolerance for Housing Unaffordability among Highly Skilled Young Migrants: Evidence from the Zhejiang Province of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, December.
    21. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do Local Amenities Affect The Appeal Of Regions In Europe For Migrants?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 535-561, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:68:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s00181-024-02697-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.