Technology adoption and migration dynamics: A gravity model analysis of bilateral flows

This paper explores the complex interplay between technology adoption, specifically robotisation and digitalisation, and international migration within the EU and other advanced economies, including Australia, the UK, Japan, Norway and the US, over the period 2001-2019. Utilising a gravity model approach grounded in neoclassical migration theory, the study analyses how technological advancements influence migration flows. The research uniquely integrates these technological factors into migration analysis, considering both push and pull effects and reveals two main results: (1) In migration origin countries, higher adoption of both digitalisation and robotisation is associated with lower emigration, suggesting ‘complementarity’ between technologies and workers, i.e. less incentive to emigrate when the level of technology adoption was higher. This indicates that technology adoption at origin is associated with better opportunities in the labour market and weaker incentives to emigrate. (2) In migration destination countries, the results indicate a more differentiated picture in that we find some evidence for a ‘substitution’ effect with regard to higher levels of digital assets adoption but a ‘complementarity’ effect with respect to higher levels of robotisation. Additionally, this study accounts for various other migration determinants including macroeconomic conditions, demography and policy factors. The findings reveal insights about the relationships between technological progress, labour market conditions and migration patterns, thereby contributing significantly to current literature and suggests implications for migration policies and accelerated technology adoption.