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The Short- and Long-Run Determinants of Less- Educated Immigrant Flows into U.S. States

  • Nicole B. Simpson

    ()

    (Colgate University)

  • Chad Sparber

    ()

    (Colgate University)

We use a gravity model of migration and alternative estimation strategies to analyse how income differentials affect the flow of immigrants into U.S. states using annual data from the American Community Survey. We add to existing literature by decomposing income differentials into short- and long-term components and by focusing on newly arrived less-educated immigrants between 2000-2009. Our sample is unique in that the vast majority of our observations take zero values. Models that include observations with zero flow values find that recent male immigrants respond to differences in (short-term) GDP fluctuations between origin countries and U.S. states, and perhaps to (long-term) trend GDP differences as well. More specifically, GDP fluctuations pull less-educated male immigrants into certain U.S. states, whereas GDP trends push less-educated male immigrants out of their countries of origin. Effects for less-educated women are less robust, as GDP coefficients tend to be much smaller than for men.

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Paper provided by Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London in its series CReAM Discussion Paper Series with number 1226.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:1226
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  1. Gordon H. Hanson & Antonio Spilimbergo, 1996. "Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement, and Relative Wages: Evidence from Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border," Research Department Publications 4036, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Lewer, Joshua J. & Pacheco, Gail & Rossouw, Stephanié, 2009. "Do Non-Economic Quality of Life Factors Drive Immigration?," IZA Discussion Papers 4385, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Warin Thierry & Svaton Pavel, 2008. "European Migration: Welfare Migration or Economic Migration?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-32, September.
  4. Falck, Oliver & Heblich, Stephan & Lameli, Alfred & Südekum, Jens, 2012. "Dialects, cultural identity, and economic exchange," Munich Reprints in Economics 20568, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  5. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2003. "What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  6. Federico S. Mandelman & Andrei Zlate, 2010. "Immigration, remittances, and business cycles," Working Paper 2008-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
  8. Clark, Ximena & Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2004. "Explaining U.S. immigration, 1971-98," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3252, The World Bank.
  9. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2011. "Multilateral Resistance to Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 5958, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Jeffrey Grogger & Gordon H. Hanson, 2008. "Income Maximization and the Selection and Sorting of International Migrants," NBER Working Papers 13821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2009. "The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005," Working Papers 96, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
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