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A Gravity Model of Migration between ENC and EU

Author

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  • Ramos, Raul

    () (University of Barcelona)

  • Surinach, Jordi

    () (University of Barcelona)

Abstract

Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramos, Raul & Surinach, Jordi, 2013. "A Gravity Model of Migration between ENC and EU," IZA Discussion Papers 7700, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7700
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 79-100.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Raul Ramos, 2016. "Gravity models: A tool for migration analysis," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 239-239, February.
    2. Kristina Gorodetski & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2016. "Zuwanderung nach Deutschland – Mittel- bis langfristige Projektionen mit dem Modell TINFORGE," GWS Discussion Paper Series 16-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    3. Dinçer, Gönül, 2014. "Turkey’s Rising Imports from BRICS: A Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 61979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dinçer, Gönül & Muratoğlu, Yusuf, 2014. "Türkiye’den Oecd Ülkelerine Gerçekleşen Göçün Çekim Modeli İle Analizi
      [Immigration to the Oecd Countries from Turkey: A Gravity Model Approach]
      ," MPRA Paper 62201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ramos, Raul, 2017. "Migration Aspirations among NEETs in Selected MENA Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 11146, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity model; EU neighbouring countries; bilateral migration; push and pull migration factors;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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