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Укрупненная Агент-Ориентированная Имитационная Модель Миграционных Потоков Стран Европейского Союза

Author

Listed:
  • Макаров В.Л.i
  • *
  • Бахтизин А.Р.i
  • Бекларян Г.Л.i
  • Акопов А.С.i
  • Ровенская Е.А.ii
  • **
  • Стрелковский Н.Вii.

Abstract

i ЦЭМИ, Москва ii Международный институт прикладного системного анализа (IIASA), Австрия * E-mail: makarov@cemi.rssi.ru ** E-mail: rovenska@iiasa.ac.at Проект выполнен при частичной финансовой поддержке Российского фонда фундаментальных исследований (проект 18-51-14010 АНФ_а). Аннотация. В статье представлена укрупненная агент-ориентированная имитационная модель миграционных потоков стран Европейского союза (ЕС), реализованная в системе AnyLogic, созданная в виде расширенной гравитационной модели. В модели принятие индивидуальных решений со стороны агентов-мигрантов основывается на комплексной оценке социально-экономической, географической и прочей дифференциации соответствующих стран. При этом одни факторы притягивают мигрантов, а другие отталкивают. Отличительной особенностью модели является дифференциация миграционных потоков по категориям мигрантов с выделением различных влияющих факторов, отражающих индивидуальные предпочтения агентов-мигрантов по отношению к агентам-странам (членам ЕС). Выделяются множественные управляющие параметры, влияющие на распределение миграционных потоков между странами ЕС, в частности миграционные квоты, пособия по безработице, минимальная заработная плата и др. Сформулирована важнейшая бикритериальная оптимизационная задача стран ЕС по выбору рациональной миграционной и экономической политики, основанной, в частности, на максимизации интегрального ВВП и минимизации общего числа мигрантов, за счет управления параметрами, влияющими на структуру миграционных потоков и трудовые ресурсы, а также затраты на их обслуживание. Впервые предложена и изучена расширенная гравитационная модель, описывающая динамику миграционных потоков с выделением множественных факторов, дифференцированно влияющих на привлекательность стран ЕС для различных групп мигрантов, например внутренних мигрантов, экономических мигрантов, беженцев и др.

Suggested Citation

  • Макаров В.Л.i & * & Бахтизин А.Р.i & Бекларян Г.Л.i & Акопов А.С.i & Ровенская Е.А.ii & ** & Стрелковский Н.Вii., 2019. "Укрупненная Агент-Ориентированная Имитационная Модель Миграционных Потоков Стран Европейского Союза," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 3-15, январь.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:55:y:2019:i:1:p:3-15
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