“A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU”
Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2013|
|Date of revision:||Oct 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Diagonal 690-696, 08034 Barcelona|
Phone: +34 93 402 43 13cazza
Web page: http://www.ub.edu/irea/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-HuertasMoraga, 2011.
"Multilateral Resistance to Migration,"
- Simone Bertoli & Jesus Fernandez-Huertas Moraga, 2011. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Post-Print halshs-00670886, HAL.
- Simone Bertoli & J. Fernandes-Huertas Moraga, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Post-Print halshs-00820169, HAL.
- Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2011. "Multilateral Resistance to Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 5958, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Helena Marques, 2010. "Migration Creation and Diversion in the European Union: Is Central and Eastern Europe a 'Natural' Member of the Single Market for Labour?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 265-291, 03.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2013.
"The log of gravity revisited,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 311-327, January.
- Hugo Gallardo-Sejas & Salvador-Gil Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jose Martinez-Serrano, 2006. "Determinants of European immigration: a cross-country analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 769-773.
- Joan Llull, 2013.
"Understanding International Migration: Evidence from a New Dataset of Bilateral Stocks (1960-2000),"
715, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Joan Llull, 2016. "Understanding international migration: evidence from a new dataset of bilateral stocks (1960–2000)," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 221-255, June.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005.
"The Log of Gravity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Mayda, Anna Maria, 2007.
"International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Bilateral Flows,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
- Anna Maria Mayda, 2007. "International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0707, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- Jeffrey Grogger & Gordon H. Hanson, 2008.
"Income Maximization and the Selection and Sorting of International Migrants,"
NBER Working Papers
13821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
- Douglas S. Massey, 1999. "International Migration at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century: The Role of the State," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 303-322.
- Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2009.
"The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005,"
NBER Working Papers
14833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2009. "The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005," Working Papers 96, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
- Ozden, Caglar & Parsons, Christopher R. & Schiff, Maurice & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2011.
"Where on earth is everybody ? the evolution of global bilateral migration 1960-2000,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
5709, The World Bank.
- Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Mathias Moser & Anna Raggl, 2013. "On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 5, WWWforEurope.
- Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005.
"On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
- Chris Tilly, 2011. "The impact of the economic crisis on international migration: a review," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 25(4), pages 675-692, December.
- Jack DeWaard & Keuntae Kim & James Raymer, 2012. "Migration Systems in Europe: Evidence From Harmonized Flow Data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1307-1333, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alicia García)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.