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Zuwanderung nach Deutschland – Mittel- bis langfristige Projektionen mit dem Modell TINFORGE

Author

Listed:
  • Kristina Gorodetski

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Anke Mönnig

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

Der Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Abschätzung der zukünftigen Zuwanderungsentwicklung nach Deutschland bis 2035. Darin wird ein neuer Modellierungsansatz vorgestellt, der die Zuwanderung nicht nur insgesamt, sondern auch differenziert nach Herkunftsländern, Alter und Geschlecht projiziert. Die Ergebnisse weisen auf einen Rückgang der Zuwanderung um -8,5 % bis 2035 hin. Der Rückgang basiert primär auf der demografisch bedingten, rückläufigen Entwicklung der Zuwanderung aus den europäischen Ländern. Die Zuwanderung aus politisch und/oder sozioökonomisch prekären Ländern in Afrika sowie dem Mittleren und Nahen Osten wird auch langfristig zunehmen.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristina Gorodetski & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2016. "Zuwanderung nach Deutschland – Mittel- bis langfristige Projektionen mit dem Modell TINFORGE," GWS Discussion Paper Series 16-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:16-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    2. Ron Boschma & Simona Iammarino & Raffaele Paci & Jordy Suriñach & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2017. "A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(1), pages 21-35, February.
    3. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 9, pages 235-274, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Marcel Fratzscher & Simon Junker, 2015. "Integration von Flüchtlingen: eine langfristig lohnende Investition," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(45), pages 1083-1088.
    5. Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter & Anett Großmann & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe, 2014. "TINFORGE - Trade for the INterindustry FORecasting GErmany Model," GWS Discussion Paper Series 14-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    6. Anja Sonnenburg & Britta Stöver & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2015. "Ansatzpunkte zur Abschätzung der ökonomischen Folgen der Flüchtlingszahlen," GWS Discussion Paper Series 15-17, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anja Sonnenburg & Britta Stöver & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2016. "Ansatzpunkte zur Abschätzung der ökonomischen Folgen der Flüchtlingszahlen und erste Quantifizierung – Aktualisierung," GWS Discussion Paper Series 16-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demografie; Zuwanderung; Modellierung; Projektion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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