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TINFORGE - Trade for the INterindustry FORecasting GErmany Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter

    () (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Anett Großmann

    () (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Anke Mönnig

    () (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe

    () (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

Gleichwohl die Weltwirtschaftskrise den Ruf nach mehr Protektionismus verstärkt hat, sind weiterhin eine zunehmende Integration des Welthandels und eine fortschreitende Globalisierung zu beobachten: Neue Handelspartner treten auf, etablierte Partner verlieren an Bedeutung, andere wiederum gewinnen an Einfluss. Für den makro-ökonomischen Modellbau bedeutet dies eine möglichst präzise Erfassung des Welthandels zu erreichen, die den unterschiedlichen Dynamiken der Länder, deren Weltmarktanteile und Handelsverflechtungen gerecht wird. Mit TINFORGE (Trade for the INterindustry FORecasting Germany Model) wurde ein auf Makrodaten basierendes Welthandelsmodell entwickelt, welches die Handelsbeziehungen zwischen 70 Ländern und Regionen abbildet. In diesem Diskussionsbeitrag werden die grundsätzlichen Konstruktionsbausteine von TINFORGE erläutert. Neben der Datenbasis wird die Modellstruktur der einzelnen makro-ökonomischen Ländermodelle erklärt sowie die Funktionsweise des Welthandels unter Verwendung von bilateralen Handelsmatrizen erörtert. Erste Modellergebnisse werden beispielhaft für Spanien dargelegt.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter & Anett Großmann & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe, 2014. "TINFORGE - Trade for the INterindustry FORecasting GErmany Model," GWS Discussion Paper Series 14-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:14-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mönnig, Anke & Zika, Gerd & Maier, Tobias, 2013. "Trade and qualification : linking qualification needs to Germany's export flows," IAB Discussion Paper 201307, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Stocker, Andrea & Großmann, Anett & Madlener, Reinhard & Wolter, Marc Ingo, 2011. "Sustainable energy development in Austria until 2020: Insights from applying the integrated model "e3.at"," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6082-6099, October.
    3. Mark Meyer & Martin Distelkamp & Gerd Ahlert & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, 2013. "Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus - An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-5, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristina Gorodetski & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter, 2016. "Zuwanderung nach Deutschland – Mittel- bis langfristige Projektionen mit dem Modell TINFORGE," GWS Discussion Paper Series 16-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    makro-ökonomischen Modellbau; Welthandel; bilaterale Handelsmatrizen. Ländermodelle;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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