IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v26n042023p521-550.html

Move, Stay, or Pay: The Impact of Land Prices on Migration Balances in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Lukas Felix Götzelmann

    (EBS University for Business and Law)

  • Ferdinand Mager

    (EBS University for Business and Law)

  • Kerstin Hennig

    (EBS University for Business and Law)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of housing costs on net migration in Germany, a country with a polycentric structure. We apply a panel data estimation framework with a large array of unit, time, and regional fixed effects to close to 400 individual counties for the period of 2002 to 2018. Our findings suggest a strong and negative relation between residential land prices and net migration. We conclude that higher land prices can largely offset the additional amenities factored into housing costs and hence cause negative effects on migration. We show that our results are robust to various control specifications, including the addition of variables such as income, education, and age structure, and the use of time lags.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Felix Götzelmann & Ferdinand Mager & Kerstin Hennig, 2023. "Move, Stay, or Pay: The Impact of Land Prices on Migration Balances in Germany," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(4), pages 521-550.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:26:n:04:2023:p:521-550
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/vol26-no4_3-MoveStay-or-Pay-Goetzelmann.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jörg Decressin, 1994. "Internal migration in West Germany and implications for East-West salary convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 231-257, June.
    2. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Détang-Dessendre, Cécile & Hunt, Gary L. & Piguet, Virginie, 2013. "Housing prices and inter-urban migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 296-306.
    3. Michael Storper & Michael Manville, 2006. "Behaviour, Preferences and Cities: Urban Theory and Urban Resurgence," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 43(8), pages 1247-1274, July.
    4. Napolitano, Oreste & Bonasia, Mariangela, 2010. "Determinants of different internal migration trends: the Italian experience," MPRA Paper 21734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nicole Van Der Gaag & Leo Van Wissen, 2008. "Economic Determinants Of Internal Migration Rates: A Comparison Across Five European Countries," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 99(2), pages 209-222, April.
    6. Klick Larissa & Schaffner Sandra, 2021. "Regional Real Estate Price Indices for Germany, 2008 – 2019: RWI–GEO–REDX," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 119-129, February.
    7. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    8. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony & Cameron, Gavin, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 5832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Thiess Buettner & Alexander Ebertz, 2009. "Quality of life in the regions: results for German Counties," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 43(1), pages 89-112, March.
    10. Tanja Buch & Silke Hamann & Annekatrin Niebuhr & Anja Rossen, 2014. "What Makes Cities Attractive? The Determinants of Urban Labour Migration in Germany," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 1960-1978, July.
    11. Graves, Philip E., 1983. "Migration with a composite amenity: the role of rents," MPRA Paper 19917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Berger, Mark C. & Blomquist, Glenn C., 1992. "Mobility and destination in migration decisions: The roles of earnings, quality of life, and housing prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 37-59, March.
    13. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
    14. Knapp, Thomas A. & Graves, Philip E., 1989. "On the role of amenities in models of migration and regional development," MPRA Paper 19914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Nhung Luu & Orsetta Causa, 2021. "Migration, housing and regional disparities: A gravity model of inter-regional migration with an application to selected OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1691, OECD Publishing.
    16. Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2010. "Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 30(2), pages 159-189, September.
    17. Gabriel, Stuart A. & Shack-Marquez, Janice & Wascher, William L., 1992. "Regional house-price dispersion and interregional migration," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 235-256, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ire:issued:v:26:n:04:2023:p:519-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Timo Mitze & Torben Schmidt, 2015. "Internal migration, regional labor markets and the role of agglomeration economies," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 55(1), pages 61-101, October.
    3. Maximiliano Alvarez & Vicente Royuela, 2022. "The effect of labor‐market differentials on interregional migration in Spain: A meta‐regression analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 913-937, September.
    4. Mitze, Timo & Reinkowski, Janina, 2010. "Testing the Validity of the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Estimation Results for German Spatial Planning Regions," MPRA Paper 23616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alejandro Steven Fonseca-Zendejas & Carmen Borrego-Salcido & M. Carmen Delgado, 2025. "Internal migration in Spain: identifying key drivers for forecasting," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(2), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Jaewon Lim, 2017. "Out-migration from the epicenters of the housing bubble burst during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession in the USA," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(2), pages 297-319, September.
    7. Maximiliano Alvarez & Aude Bernard & Scott N. Lieske, 2025. "Explaining interregional migration trends in developed countries: a regional perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(5), pages 2413-2453, May.
    8. Frank Goetzke & Tilmann Rave, 2013. "Migration in Germany," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 36(2), pages 167-182, April.
    9. Anil Rupasingha & Yongzheng Liu & Mark Partridge, 2015. "Rural Bound: Determinants of Metro to Non-Metro Migration in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(3), pages 680-700.
    10. Timo Mitze & Janina Reinkowski, 2010. "Testing the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Results for German Regions," Ruhr Economic Papers 0226, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Timo Mitze, 2012. "Testing the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Results for German Regions," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Empirical Modelling in Regional Science, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 53-82, Springer.
    12. Yanjiao Song & Nina Zhu & Feng Luo, 2022. "City Size and Permanent Settlement Intention: Evidence from Rural-Urban Migrants in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-18, January.
    13. María Gutiérrez-Portilla & Adolfo Maza & María Hierro, 2018. "Foreigners versus natives in Spain: different migration patterns? Any changes in the aftermath of the crisis?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(1), pages 139-159, July.
    14. Jim Millington, 2000. "Migration and Age: The Effect of Age on Sensitivity to Migration Stimuli," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 521-533.
    15. Hunt, Gary L. & Mueller, Richard E., 2010. "Returns to Skill, Tax Policy, and North American Migration by Skill Level: Canada and the United States 1995 - 2001," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2010-11, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 26 Mar 2010.
    16. Xin DONG & Weihua ZHOU, 2016. "Housing Affordability and Permanent Migration Intention of Rural-Urban Migrants," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-12, June.
    17. Niu, Dongxiao & Sun, Weizeng & Zheng, Siqi, 2021. "The role of informal housing in lowering China’s urbanization costs," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Aleksey Oshchepkov, 2007. "Are Interregional Wage Differentials in Russia Compensative?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 750, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Buch, Tanja & Hamann, Silke & Meier, Henning & Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Peters, Cornelius & Puckelwald, Johannes, 2011. "Analyse der Berücksichtigung eines Wanderungsindikators im Rahmen der Abgrenzung des GRW-Fördergebiets : Gutachten für die Gemeinschaftsaufgabe "Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur" im Auftrag des Hessischen Ministeriums für Wir," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201104, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    20. Celia Melguizo Cháfe & Vicente Royuela, 2017. "“What drives migration moves across urban areas in Spain?. Evidence from the Great Recession”," AQR Working Papers 201709, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2017.
    21. Dissart, Jean-Christophe, 2007. "Landscapes and regional development: What are the links?," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 84.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:26:n:04:2023:p:521-550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.