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Recovery Scenarios for Ireland

  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide

This paper examines recovery scenarios for the Irish economy. It estimates that the growth rate in potential output is 3% a year. This takes account of a permanent loss of output of 10% of GDP as a result of the recession. On this basis, and taking account of government fiscal action this year and in 2010, the government"s structural deficit is estimated to fall to between 3 and 4% of GDP by the end of 2010. The analysis suggests that when the world economy recovers the Irish economy will follow suit recovering some lost ground. Should the world recovery be delayed until 2012 this would inflict some further damage but the Irish economy would still see quite rapid growth in the postponed recovery phase.

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This book is provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Research Series with number RS007 and published in 2009.
ISBN: 9780707002811
Handle: RePEc:esr:resser:rs007
Note: Publisher: ESRI
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  1. Barrett, Alan & FitzGerald, John & Nolan, Brian, 2000. "Earnings Inequality, Returns to Education and Immigration into Ireland," IZA Discussion Papers 167, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, 2006. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," Papers WP175, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Kelly, Eilish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip, 2009. "Benchmarking, Social Partnership and Higher Remuneration: Wage Settling Institutions and the Public-Private Sector Wage Gap in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(3), pages 339–370.
  4. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521873161 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Edgar Morgenroth, 2009. "Irish Public Capital Spending in a Recession," Papers WP298, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from the HERMES Macro-Economic Model," Papers WP287, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  7. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, March.
  8. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide, 2007. "Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 839-858, November.
  9. Goggin, Jean & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2009. "International Transmission of Business Cycles Between Ireland and its Trading Partners," Papers WP279, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  10. FitzGerald, John, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: The Case of Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2001(1-March), pages 1-17.
  11. John FitzGerald, 1998. "Wage Formation and the Labour Market," Papers WP095, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  12. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joe & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "Medium-Term Review 2003-2010, No. 9," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR09, March.
  13. Lars Jonung & Jaakko Kiander & Pentti Vartia, 2008. "The great financial crisis in Finland and Sweden - The dynamics of boom, bust and recovery, 1985-2000," European Economy - Economic Papers 350, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  14. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide & Barrett, Alan & Duffy, David & Garrett, Shane & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2005. "Medium-Term Review 2005-2012, No. 10," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR10, March.
  15. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92.
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