IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v93y2013icp385-397.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

Author

Listed:
  • O' Mahony, Tadhg
  • Zhou, P.
  • Sweeney, John

Abstract

This paper presents future scenarios of Irish energy-related CO2 emissions to 2020, using a combination of multi-sectoral decomposition analysis with scenario analysis. Alternative development paths, driving forces and sectoral contributions in different scenarios have been explored. The scenarios are quantified by using decomposition analysis as a Divisia Index SCenario GENerator (DISCGEN). The driving forces of population, economic and social development, energy resources and technology and governance and policies are discussed. A set of four integrated or ‘hybrid’ qualitative and quantitative baseline emission scenarios are developed. It is found that sectoral contributions and emissions in each scenario vary significantly. The inclusion of governance, social and cultural driving forces are important in determining alternative development paths and sustainability is crucial. Our empirical results show that decomposition analysis is a useful technique to generate the alternative scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:385-397
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.06.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800913002152
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Rout, Ullash K. & Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Oda, Junichiro & Homma, Takashi & Tomoda, Toshimasa, 2008. "Impact assessment of the increase in fossil fuel prices on the global energy system, with and without CO2 concentration stabilization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3477-3484, September.
    3. Kwon, Tae-Hyeong, 2005. "A scenario analysis of CO2 emission trends from car travel: Great Britain 2000-2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 175-184, March.
    4. Stuart Gaffin, 1998. "World Population Projections for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 133-170, December.
    5. Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & Iacopini, Giorgia & Anderson, Kevin & Bows, Alice & Mander, Sarah & Shackley, Simon, 2009. "Different scenarios for achieving radical reduction in carbon emissions: A decomposition analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1652-1666, April.
    6. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2012. "Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 433-444.
    7. Leontief, Wassily & Duchin, Faye, 1986. "The Future Impact of Automation on Workers," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195036237.
    8. Ribeiro, Suzana K & Kobayashi, Shigeki & Beuthe, Michel & Gasca, Jorge & Greene, David & Lee, David S. & Muromachi, Yasunori & Newton, Peter J. & Plotkin, Steven & Sperling, Daniel & Wit, Ron & Zhou, , 2007. "Transportation and its Infrastructure," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt98m5t1rv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    9. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.
    10. Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
    11. Kaivo-oja, Jari & Luukkanen, Jyrki, 2004. "The European Union balancing between CO2 reduction commitments and growth policies: decomposition analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(13), pages 1511-1530, September.
    12. Hatzigeorgiou, Emmanouil & Polatidis, Heracles & Haralambopoulos, Dias, 2008. "CO2 emissions in Greece for 1990–2002: A decomposition analysis and comparison of results using the Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 492-499.
    13. Steenhof, Paul A., 2007. "Decomposition for emission baseline setting in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 280-294, January.
    14. Stefan Kruger Nielsen & Kenneth Karlsson, 2007. "Energy scenarios: a review of methods, uses and suggestions for improvement," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 302-322.
    15. Tapio, Petri & Banister, David & Luukkanen, Jyrki & Vehmas, Jarmo & Willamo, Risto, 2007. "Energy and transport in comparison: Immaterialisation, dematerialisation and decarbonisation in the EU15 between 1970 and 2000," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 433-451, January.
    16. Diakoulaki, D. & Mandaraka, M., 2007. "Decomposition analysis for assessing the progress in decoupling industrial growth from CO2 emissions in the EU manufacturing sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 636-664, July.
    17. Linderoth, Hans, 2002. "Forecast errors in IEA-countries' energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 53-61, January.
    18. David Rae & Paul van den Noord, 2006. "Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 492, OECD Publishing.
    19. Girod, Bastien & de Haan, Peter, 2009. "GHG reduction potential of changes in consumption patterns and higher quality levels: Evidence from Swiss household consumption survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5650-5661, December.
    20. Devitt, Conor & Hennessy, Hugh & Lyons, Seán & Murphy, Liam & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The Energy and Environment Review 2010," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS19.
    21. Ang, B.W. & Liu, F.L., 2001. "A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 537-548.
    22. Richmond, Amy K. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2006. "Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 176-189, February.
    23. Pilavachi, P.A. & Dalamaga, Th. & Rossetti di Valdalbero, D. & Guilmot, J.-F., 2008. "Ex-post evaluation of European energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1726-1735, May.
    24. Sorrell, Steve & Lehtonen, Markku & Stapleton, Lee & Pujol, Javier & Champion, Toby, 2009. "Decomposing road freight energy use in the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3115-3129, August.
    25. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
    26. Winebrake, James J. & Sakva, Denys, 2006. "An evaluation of errors in US energy forecasts: 1982-2003," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3475-3483, December.
    27. O’ Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, Peng & Sweeney, John, 2012. "The driving forces of change in energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral decomposition from 1990 to 2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 256-267.
    28. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji, 2010. "Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 434-444, December.
    29. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhen, Wei & Qin, Quande & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Spatio-temporal patterns of energy consumption-related GHG emissions in China's crop production systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 274-284.
    2. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2016. "A cross-country assessment of energy-related CO2 emissions: An extended Kaya Index Decomposition Approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1361-1374.
    3. Liobikienė, Genovaitė & Butkus, Mindaugas, 2017. "The European Union possibilities to achieve targets of Europe 2020 and Paris agreement climate policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 298-309.
    4. Liobikienė, Genovaitė & Butkus, Mindaugas & Bernatonienė, Jurga, 2016. "Drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the Baltic states: decomposition analysis related to the implementation of Europe 2020 strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 309-317.
    5. Ang, B.W., 2015. "LMDI decomposition approach: A guide for implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 233-238.
    6. Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia, 2016. "Decomposition analysis from demand services to material production: The case of CO2 emissions from steel produced for automobiles in Mexico," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 245-255.
    7. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang & Buchgeister, Jens & Hauser, Wolfgang & Kosow, Hannah & Naegler, Tobias & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Pregger, Thomas & Prehofer, Sigrid & von Recklinghausen, Andreas & Schippl, , 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 956-970.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decomposition analysis; Scenario analysis; CO2 emissions;

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:385-397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.