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Ex-post evaluation of European energy models

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  • Pilavachi, P.A.
  • Dalamaga, Th.
  • Rossetti di Valdalbero, D.
  • Guilmot, J.-F.

Abstract

Various energy-modelling activities are pursued by public authorities, private companies and research institutes with the aim to provide energy forecasts and to assess the impact of energy and environmental policies. Nevertheless, no ex-post evaluations of the results of these modelling activities have been carried out at the European Community level. This paper investigates and compares the assumptions and the results from a European study carried out in the middle of the eighties with the combination of the so-called Modèle de prospective de la demande énergétique a long terme (MEDEE) and Energy flow optimization (EFOM) models with the targeted year of 2000 as presented in the "ENERGY 2000" study. Concretely, assumptions and forecasts are compared with real statistical data. In this way, an evaluation of quantitative tools and model results can be established. The aim of this paper is not to evaluate the quantitative tools themselves but their results and their policy relevance within a frame of 15 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilavachi, P.A. & Dalamaga, Th. & Rossetti di Valdalbero, D. & Guilmot, J.-F., 2008. "Ex-post evaluation of European energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1726-1735, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:5:p:1726-1735
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Das, Anjana & Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico & Virdis, Maria R., 2007. "ACROPOLIS: An example of international collaboration in the field of energy modelling to support greenhouse gases mitigation policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 763-771, February.
    2. Lapillonne, B. & Chateau, B., 1981. "The medee models for long term energy demand forecasting," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 53-58.
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    1. repec:eee:rensus:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:1389-1398 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Franco, Sainu & Mandla, Venkata Ravibabu & Ram Mohan Rao, K., 2017. "Urbanization, energy consumption and emissions in the Indian context A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 898-907.
    3. Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
    4. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.
    5. Strachan, Neil, 2011. "Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 153-160, March.
    6. Simoes, Sofia & Fortes, Patrícia & Seixas, Júlia & Huppes, Gjalt, 2015. "Assessing effects of exogenous assumptions in GHG emissions forecasts – a 2020 scenario study for Portugal using the Times energy technology model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 221-235.
    7. Rout, Ullash K., 2011. "Prospects of India's energy and emissions for a long time frame," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5647-5663, September.
    8. J. Andrew Kelly & Herman R.J. Vollebergh, 2012. "Adaptive Policy Mechanisms for Transboundary Air Pollution Regulation: Reasons and Recommendations," Working Papers 2012.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Michel, David, 2009. "Foxes, hedgehogs, and greenhouse governance: Knowledge, uncertainty, and international policy-making in a warming World," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 258-264, February.
    10. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.

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