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Impact assessment of the increase in fossil fuel prices on the global energy system, with and without CO2 concentration stabilization

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  • Rout, Ullash K.
  • Akimoto, Keigo
  • Sano, Fuminori
  • Oda, Junichiro
  • Homma, Takashi
  • Tomoda, Toshimasa

Abstract

It is important to evaluate impacts of fossil fuel price hikes and climate stabilization that force the global energy system to adopt alternative and efficient technologies by routing future energy system dynamics into a different technology roadmap. Hence, a high-regional-resolution and technology-rich DNE21+ model is used for the simulation of some price-hike scenarios for the period from 2000 to 2030 by increasing the ordinate of cost-potential curve of crude oil, natural gas and coal by 55Â US$(00)/bbl, 3.8Â US$(00)/kcf and 56Â US$(00)/tonne, respectively, above their reference values; and 550Â ppmv stabilization is implemented by carbon limitation from 6998 to 8250Â MtC/yr. This study detected that hike in fossil fuel prices acts as an anti-catalyst for human-induced anthropogenic emissions and alleviates heavy dependency upon fossil fuels. Further, it partially solves problems of climate change by reducing CO2 emission levels (23%), reflects human behavior through energy conservation (1.4Â Gtoe), calls for efficiency improvement (7%), adopts more efficient and alternative technologies, compared to reference; however, with 550Â ppmv stabilization, energy conservation rises to 1.6Â Gtoe, demands 16% higher efficiency improvement and reduces CO2 emission by 36%, relative to reference.

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  • Rout, Ullash K. & Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Oda, Junichiro & Homma, Takashi & Tomoda, Toshimasa, 2008. "Impact assessment of the increase in fossil fuel prices on the global energy system, with and without CO2 concentration stabilization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3477-3484, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:9:p:3477-3484
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    2. Oda, Junichiro & Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Tomoda, Toshimasa, 2007. "Diffusion of energy efficient technologies and CO2 emission reductions in iron and steel sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 868-888, July.
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    1. Liu, Haiying & Pata, Ugur Korkut & Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Karlilar, Selin & Caglar, Abdullah Emre, 2023. "Do oil and natural gas prices affect carbon efficiency? Daily evidence from China by wavelet transform-based approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Rout, Ullash K. & Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Tomoda, Toshimasa, 2010. "Introduction of subsidisation in nascent climate-friendly learning technologies and evaluation of its effectiveness," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 520-532, January.
    3. Yosuke Arino & Fuminori Sano & Keigo Akimoto, 2017. "Future Fossil Fuel Price Impacts on NDC Achievement; Estimation of GHG Emissions and Mitigation Costs," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 16-35.
    4. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.
    5. Dannehl, Dennis & Suhl, Johanna & Huyskens-Keil, Susanne & Ulrichs, Christian & Schmidt, Uwe, 2014. "Effects of a special solar collector greenhouse on water balance, fruit quantity and fruit quality of tomatoes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 14-23.
    6. Rout, Ullash K., 2011. "Prospects of India's energy and emissions for a long time frame," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5647-5663, September.
    7. Margaux Escoffier & Emmanuel Hache & Valérie Mignon & Anthony Paris, 2019. "Determinants of investments in solar photovoltaic: Do oil prices really matter?," Working Papers hal-04141866, HAL.
    8. van Ruijven, Bas & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4797-4808, November.
    9. Rout, Ullash K. & Blesl, Markus & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies: An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4927-4942, November.
    10. Escoffier, Margaux & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie & Paris, Anthony, 2021. "Determinants of solar photovoltaic deployment in the electricity mix: Do oil prices really matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Hongtao Ren & Wenji Zhou & Hangzhou Wang & Bo Zhang & Tieju Ma, 2022. "An energy system optimization model accounting for the interrelations of multiple stochastic energy prices," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 316(1), pages 555-579, September.
    12. Chee Tahir, Aidid & Bañares-Alcántara, René, 2012. "A knowledge representation model for the optimisation of electricity generation mixes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 77-83.
    13. Guo, Jiaqi & Long, Shaobo & Luo, Weijie, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Rout, Ullash K. & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Blesl, Markus & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models--a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2814-2830, July.
    15. Jānis Krūmiņš & Māris Kļaviņš, 2022. "The Baltic States’ Move toward a Sustainable Energy Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-31, November.
    16. Franco Ruzzenenti & Andreas A. Papandreou, 2015. "Effects of fossil fuel prices on the transition to a low-carbon economy," Working papers wpaper89, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    17. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Bai, Lan & Wang, Yizhi, 2023. "Connectedness among El Niño-Southern Oscillation, carbon emission allowance, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets: Time- and frequency-domain evidence based on TVP-VAR model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 289-309.

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