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Economic and Societal Changes in China and their Effects onWater Use A Scenario Analysis

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  • Klaus Hubacek
  • Laixiang Sun

Abstract

China's development over the last few decades has been characterized by high rates of economic growth, large‐scale migration from rural areas to the fast‐growing cities accompanied by changes in lifestyles, and steady population growth. These developments have left deep marks on resource availability and quality. In this article we conduct a scenario analysis of how lifestyle changes and other major developments might affect water resources. China has the longest tradition in river and water resource management in the world. Its civilization has sought to control the effects of floods and drought for thousands of years and has utilized water flows for irrigation and navigation. In the last century, competing uses such as domestic, municipal, and industrial water consumption have also become reasons for the regulation of and large‐scale abstraction of water. To investigate the major changes in economy and society and their effects on the water situation in China, a set of scenarios is developed and analyzed within a structural economics framework. A hydrological model that represents water flows in the major watersheds is linked to a regional input‐output model that represents socioeconomic activities in the major economic‐administrative regions of China. The regional analysis shows that the North and Northwest regions are water‐scarce and that lifestyle changes and technical shifts are the most important factors driving future water consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Hubacek & Laixiang Sun, 2005. "Economic and Societal Changes in China and their Effects onWater Use A Scenario Analysis," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 9(1‐2), pages 187-200, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:9:y:2005:i:1-2:p:187-200
    DOI: 10.1162/1088198054084572
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    Cited by:

    1. Okadera, Tomohiro & Geng, Yong & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Dong, Huijuan & Liu, Zhu & Yoshida, Noboru & Kanazawa, Takaaki, 2015. "Evaluating the water footprint of the energy supply of Liaoning Province, China: A regional input–output analysis approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-157.
    2. Hawkins, Jacob & Ma, Chunbo & Schilizzi, Steven & Zhang, Fan, 2015. "Promises and pitfalls in environmentally extended input–output analysis for China: A survey of the literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 81-88.
    3. Okadera, Tomohiro & Chontanawat, Jaruwan & Gheewala, Shabbir H., 2014. "Water footprint for energy production and supply in Thailand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 49-56.
    4. Lin, Chen, 2009. "Hybrid input-output analysis of wastewater treatment and environmental impacts: A case study for the Tokyo Metropolis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2096-2105, May.
    5. Wei Yang & Junnian Song & Yoshiro Higano & Jie Tang, 2015. "An Integrated Simulation Model for Dynamically Exploring the Optimal Solution to Mitigating Water Scarcity and Pollution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Guan, Dabo & Hubacek, Klaus, 2007. "Assessment of regional trade and virtual water flows in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 159-170, February.
    7. Huang, Wei & Corbett, James J. & Jin, Di, 2015. "Regional economic and environmental analysis as a decision support for marine spatial planning in Xiamen," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 555-562.
    8. Qin Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Zhan Wang & Chenchen Shi & Xing Li, 2014. "Analysis and Projection of the Relationship between Industrial Structure and Land Use Structure in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-28, December.
    9. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.
    10. Hofmann, Jana & Guan, Dabo & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos & Huo, Hong, 2016. "Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 995-1003.
    11. Dabo Guan & Terry Barker, 2012. "Low-carbon development in the least developed region: a case study of Guangyuan, Sichuan province, southwest China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 243-254, June.

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