IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v184y2016icp995-1003.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China

Author

Listed:
  • Hofmann, Jana
  • Guan, Dabo
  • Chalvatzis, Konstantinos
  • Huo, Hong

Abstract

This paper analyses the impacts of the gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs at different penetration rates on petroleum and electricity sectors and their CO2 emissions. The study utilises a top-down-type Environmental Input–Output (EI–O) model. Our results show that the replacement of gasoline cars with EVs causes greater impacts on total gasoline production than on total electricity generation. For example, at 5%, 20%, 50%, 70% and 100% gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, the total gasoline production decreases by 1.66%, 6.65%, 16.62%, 23.27% and 33.24% in policy scenario 1, while the total electricity production only increases by 0.71%, 2.82%, 7.05%, 9.87% and 14.10%. Our study confirms that the gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, powered by 80% coal, has no effect on overall emissions. The CO2 emissions reduction in the petroleum sector is offset by the increase in CO2 emissions in the electricity sector, leaving the national CO2 emissions unchanged. By decarbonising the electricity sector, i.e. using 30% less coal in electricity generation mix, the total CO2 emissions will be reduced by 28% (from 10,953 to 7870Mt CO2) on the national level. The gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs, powered by 50% coal-based electricity, helps reduce CO2 emissions in petroleum sector and contributes zero or a very small proportion of additional CO2 emissions to the electricity sector (policy scenario 2 and 3). We argue that EVs can contribute to a reduction of petroleum dependence, air quality improvement and CO2 emission reduction only when their introduction is accompanied by aggressive electricity sector decarbonisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hofmann, Jana & Guan, Dabo & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos & Huo, Hong, 2016. "Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 995-1003.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:184:y:2016:i:c:p:995-1003
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916308170
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Turner, Karen & Lenzen, Manfred & Wiedmann, Thomas & Barrett, John, 2007. "Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities -- Part 1: A technical note on combining input-output and ecological footprint analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 37-44, April.
    2. Yuan, Xinmei & Li, Lili & Gou, Huadong & Dong, Tingting, 2015. "Energy and environmental impact of battery electric vehicle range in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 75-84.
    3. Doucette, Reed T. & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2011. "Modeling the prospects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to reduce CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(7), pages 2315-2323, July.
    4. Abrams Burton A & Parsons George R, 2009. "Is CARS a Clunker?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 6(8), pages 1-4, August.
    5. Zafirakis, D. & Chalvatzis, K. & Kaldellis, J.K., 2013. "“Socially just” support mechanisms for the promotion of renewable energy sources in Greece," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 478-493.
    6. Yao, Mingfa & Liu, Haifeng & Feng, Xuan, 2011. "The development of low-carbon vehicles in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5457-5464, September.
    7. Donateo, T. & Licci, F. & D’Elia, A. & Colangelo, G. & Laforgia, D. & Ciancarelli, F., 2015. "Evaluation of emissions of CO2 and air pollutants from electric vehicles in Italian cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 675-687.
    8. Yan, Xiaoyu & Crookes, Roy J., 2009. "Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 658-668, February.
    9. Helveston, John Paul & Liu, Yimin & Feit, Elea McDonnell & Fuchs, Erica & Klampfl, Erica & Michalek, Jeremy J., 2015. "Will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption? Measuring consumer preferences in the U.S. and China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 96-112.
    10. Ou, Xunmin & Xiaoyu, Yan & Zhang, Xiliang, 2011. "Life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for electricity generation and supply in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 289-297, January.
    11. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    12. Xingping Zhang & Rao Rao & Jian Xie & Yanni Liang, 2014. "The Current Dilemma and Future Path of China’s Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, March.
    13. Liu, Zhu & Geng, Yong & Lindner, Soeren & Zhao, Hongyan & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Guan, Dabo, 2012. "Embodied energy use in China's industrial sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 751-758.
    14. Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Rubel, Keagan, 2015. "Electricity portfolio innovation for energy security: The case of carbon constrained China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 267-276.
    15. Schill, Wolf-Peter & Gerbaulet, Clemens, 2015. "Power System Impacts of Electric Vehicles in Germany: Charging with Coal or Renewables," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 185-196.
    16. Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J., 2009. "Electricity generation development of Eastern Europe: A carbon technology management case study for Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1606-1612, August.
    17. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan, 2010. "Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3943-3956, August.
    18. Wiedmann, Thomas & Minx, Jan & Barrett, John & Wackernagel, Mathis, 2006. "Allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input-output analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 28-48, January.
    19. Jianlei Lang & Shuiyuan Cheng & Ying Zhou & Beibei Zhao & Haiyan Wang & Shujing Zhang, 2013. "Energy and Environmental Implications of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in China," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(5), pages 1-23, May.
    20. Xu, Xianshuo & Zhao, Tao & Liu, Nan & Kang, Jidong, 2014. "Changes of energy-related GHG emissions in China: An empirical analysis from sectoral perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 298-307.
    21. Gambhir, Ajay & Tse, Lawrence K.C. & Tong, Danlu & Martinez-Botas, Ricardo, 2015. "Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 905-917.
    22. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.
    23. Rose, Adam, 1995. "Input-output economics and computable general equilibrium models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 295-304, August.
    24. Huo, Hong & Zhang, Qiang & He, Kebin & Yao, Zhiliang & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Vehicle-use intensity in China: Current status and future trend," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 6-16.
    25. Zafirakis, Dimitrios & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Baiocchi, Giovanni & Daskalakis, George, 2013. "Modeling of financial incentives for investments in energy storage systems that promote the large-scale integration of wind energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 138-154.
    26. Huo, Hong & He, Kebin & Wang, Michael & Yao, Zhiliang, 2012. "Vehicle technologies, fuel-economy policies, and fuel-consumption rates of Chinese vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 30-36.
    27. Takeshita, Takayuki, 2012. "Assessing the co-benefits of CO2 mitigation on air pollutants emissions from road vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 225-237.
    28. Zafirakis, Dimitrios & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Baiocchi, Giovanni, 2015. "Embodied CO2 emissions and cross-border electricity trade in Europe: Rebalancing burden sharing with energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 283-300.
    29. Bauer, Christian & Hofer, Johannes & Althaus, Hans-Jörg & Del Duce, Andrea & Simons, Andrew, 2015. "The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 871-883.
    30. Hao, Han & Ou, Xunmin & Du, Jiuyu & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "China’s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 722-732.
    31. Knittel, Christopher R, 2009. "The Implied Cost of Carbon Dioxide under the Cash for Clunkers," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt95b1c3t0, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    32. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6520-6528.
    33. Edgar Hertwich, 2011. "The Life Cycle Environmental Impacts Of Consumption," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 27-47.
    34. Zhao, Xin & Doering, Otto C. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2015. "The economic competitiveness and emissions of battery electric vehicles in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 666-675.
    35. Leontief, Wassily, 1970. "Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure: An Input-Output Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(3), pages 262-271, August.
    36. Wu, Ye & Yang, Zhengdong & Lin, Bohong & Liu, Huan & Wang, Renjie & Zhou, Boya & Hao, Jiming, 2012. "Energy consumption and CO2 emission impacts of vehicle electrification in three developed regions of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 537-550.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hill, Graeme & Heidrich, Oliver & Creutzig, Felix & Blythe, Phil, 2019. "The role of electric vehicles in near-term mitigation pathways and achieving the UK’s carbon budget," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Ke, Wenwei & Zhang, Shaojun & He, Xiaoyi & Wu, Ye & Hao, Jiming, 2017. "Well-to-wheels energy consumption and emissions of electric vehicles: Mid-term implications from real-world features and air pollution control progress," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 367-377.
    3. Tan, Ruipeng & Tang, Di & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Policy impact of new energy vehicles promotion on air quality in Chinese cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 33-40.
    4. Shangfeng Han & Baosheng Zhang & Xiaoyang Sun & Song Han & Mikael Höök, 2017. "China’s Energy Transition in the Power and Transport Sectors from a Substitution Perspective," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(5), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Pappas, Dimitrios & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Guan, Dabo & Ioannidis, Alexis, 2018. "Energy and carbon intensity: A study on the cross-country industrial shift from China to India and SE Asia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 183-194.
    6. Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Ioannidis, Alexis, 2017. "Energy supply security in the EU: Benchmarking diversity and dependence of primary energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 465-476.
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Tan, Ruipeng, 2017. "Estimation of the environmental values of electric vehicles in Chinese cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 221-229.
    8. Hannan, M.A. & Lipu, M.S.H. & Hussain, A. & Mohamed, A., 2017. "A review of lithium-ion battery state of charge estimation and management system in electric vehicle applications: Challenges and recommendations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 834-854.
    9. Kain Glensor & María Rosa Muñoz B., 2019. "Life-Cycle Assessment of Brazilian Transport Biofuel and Electrification Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(22), pages 1-31, November.
    10. Khan, Muhammad Imran & Shahrestani, Mehdi & Hayat, Tasawar & Shakoor, Abdul & Vahdati, Maria, 2019. "Life cycle (well-to-wheel) energy and environmental assessment of natural gas as transportation fuel in Pakistan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1738-1752.
    11. Zhang, Lei & Qin, Quande, 2018. "China’s new energy vehicle policies: Evolution, comparison and recommendation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 57-72.
    12. Peng, Wei & Yang, Junnan & Lu, Xi & Mauzerall, Denise L., 2018. "Potential co-benefits of electrification for air quality, health, and CO2 mitigation in 2030 China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 511-519.
    13. Kalghatgi, Gautam, 2018. "Is it really the end of internal combustion engines and petroleum in transport?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 965-974.
    14. Hanif Malekpoor & Konstantinos Chalvatzis & Nishikant Mishra & Mukesh Kumar Mehlawat & Dimitrios Zafirakis & Malin Song, 2018. "Integrated grey relational analysis and multi objective grey linear programming for sustainable electricity generation planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 269(1), pages 475-503, October.
    15. Li, Xin & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Pappas, Dimitrios, 2018. "Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from power generation in China’s provinces in 2020," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 93-102.
    16. Song, Qingbin & Wang, Zhishi & Li, Jinhui & Duan, Huabo & Yu, Danfeng & Liu, Gang, 2018. "Comparative life cycle GHG emissions from local electricity generation using heavy oil, natural gas, and MSW incineration in Macau," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2450-2459.
    17. Pan, Lingying & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2018. "A discussion on China's vehicle fuel policy: Based on the development route optimization of refining industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 403-412.
    18. Muhammad Umair Ali & Sarvar Hussain Nengroo & Muhamad Adil Khan & Kamran Zeb & Muhammad Ahmad Kamran & Hee-Je Kim, 2018. "A Real-Time Simulink Interfaced Fast-Charging Methodology of Lithium-Ion Batteries under Temperature Feedback with Fuzzy Logic Control," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:184:y:2016:i:c:p:995-1003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.