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The Good, The Bad and The Impaired - A Credit Risk Model of the Irish Mortgage Market

  • Kelly, Robert

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mortgages. In particular, the paper examines the progression of mortgages in arrears from 90 days to 360 days. This question is of major financial stability concern in an Irish context as the uncertainty concerning the quality of the loan books of the Irish financial institutions is due, in the main, to the perceived impaired nature of the residential mortgage book. Using this approach, default probabilities are shown to be “hump shaped” when conditioned on loan vintage, with loans originating between 2004 and 2006 are most likely to default.

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File URL: http://www.centralbank.ie/publications/Documents/13RT11.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 13/RT/11.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:13/rt/11
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  1. R. M. Cyert & H. J. Davidson & G. L. Thompson, 1962. "Estimation of the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts by Markov Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 287-303, April.
  2. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting UK mortgage arrears and possessions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58520, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-99, August.
  5. Betancourt, Luis, 1999. " Using Markov Chains to Estimate Losses from a Portfolio of Mortgages," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 303-17, May.
  6. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
  7. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2011. "How Are Irish Households Coping with their Mortgage Repayments? Information from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 71-94.
  8. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November.
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