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The great Irish (de)leveraging 2005-14

Author

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  • Lydon, Reamonn
  • McIndoe-Calder, Tara

Abstract

Drawing on the 2013 Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and complementary administrative data sources, we simulate household balance sheets at the micro level for the 2005-14 period. We use this dataset to tell the story of household leveraging and deleveraging over a tumultuous period for the Irish economy. We show that deleveraging has proceeded at a signficantly faster pace for older households, when compared with younger age groups. In contrast, we find that a higher-incidence o f tracker mortgages amongst younger borrowers – which passed through the historically low ECB policy rates since 2009 – relative to older borrowers has played a major role in easing the debt repayment burden in the presence of large income shocks. Notwithstanding historically low interest rates, we show that income shocks are the main factor contributing to mortgage repayment problems. However, there is also a role for equity factors. JEL Classification: D12, D31, E21

Suggested Citation

  • Lydon, Reamonn & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2017. "The great Irish (de)leveraging 2005-14," Working Paper Series 2062, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172062
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    1. Ampudia, Miguel & Pavlickova, Akmaral & Slacalek, Jiri & Vogel, Edgar, 2016. "Household heterogeneity in the euro area since the onset of the Great Recession," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 181-197.
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    3. Kelly, Jane & Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2014. "Interest-only mortgages in Ireland," Economic Letters 05/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Lawless, Martina & Lydon, Reamonn & McIndoe-Calder, 2015. "The Financial Position of Irish Households," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 66-89, January.
    5. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-108, February.
    6. Goggin, Jean & Holton, Sarah & Kelly, Jane & Lydon, Reamonn & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "The financial crisis and the pricing of interest rates in the Irish mortgage market: 2003-2011," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    Cited by:

    1. McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2017. "Debt giveth and debt taketh away: mortgage debt burdens in Ireland," Economic Letters 11/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    assets; debt; deleveraging; households; income;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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