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The great Irish (de)leveraging 2005-14

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  • Lydon, Reamonn
  • McIndoe-Calder, Tara

Abstract

Drawing on the 2013 Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and complementary administrative data sources, we simulate household balance sheets at the micro level for the 2005-14 period. We use this dataset to tell the story of household leveraging and deleveraging over a tumultuous period for the Irish economy. We show that deleveraging has proceeded at a signficantly faster pace for older households, when compared with younger age groups. In contrast, we find that a higher-incidence o f tracker mortgages amongst younger borrowers – which passed through the historically low ECB policy rates since 2009 – relative to older borrowers has played a major role in easing the debt repayment burden in the presence of large income shocks. Notwithstanding historically low interest rates, we show that income shocks are the main factor contributing to mortgage repayment problems. However, there is also a role for equity factors. JEL Classification: D12, D31, E21

Suggested Citation

  • Lydon, Reamonn & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2017. "The great Irish (de)leveraging 2005-14," Working Paper Series 2062, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ampudia, Miguel & Pavlickova, Akmaral & Slacalek, Jiri & Vogel, Edgar, 2016. "Household heterogeneity in the euro area since the onset of the Great Recession," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 181-197.
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    6. Goggin, Jean & Holton, Sarah & Kelly, Jane & Lydon, Reamonn & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "The financial crisis and the pricing of interest rates in the Irish mortgage market: 2003-2011," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
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    13. Le Blanc, Julia, 2016. "Household Saving Behaviour in Ireland," Economic Letters 05/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    14. Kelly, Jane & Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2014. "Interest-only mortgages in Ireland," Economic Letters 05/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Lydon, Reamonn & Lozej, Matija, 2018. "Flexibility of new hires’ earnings in Ireland," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 112-127.
    16. Coates, Dermot & Lydon, Reamonn & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2015. "House price volatility: The role of different buyer types," Economic Letters 02/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Kamil Galuscak & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik, 2014. "Stress Testing the Private Household Sector Using Microdata," Working Papers 2014/02, Czech National Bank.
    18. Danne, Christian & McGuinness, Anne, 2016. "Mortgage modifications and loan performance," Research Technical Papers 05/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    2. McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2017. "Debt giveth and debt taketh away: mortgage debt burdens in Ireland," Economic Letters 11/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    assets; debt; deleveraging; households; income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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