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Looking behind mortgage delinquencies

Author

Listed:
  • Sauro Mocetti

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Eliana Viviano

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We examine the delinquency rate for mortgages originated before and after the 2008 financial crisis, using a novel and large representative panel obtained by merging data from tax records and credit registers. First, we estimate the selection into the mortgage market using an exogenous index of local credit supply as exclusion restriction. Second, controlling for selection we estimate the impact of income shocks on the probability of recording a delinquency. We find that since 2008 the selection process operated by banks has led to the halving of the delinquency rate. Conditional on mortgage origination, a job loss nearly doubles the delinquency risk. Estimates uncorrected for selection are subject to severe downward biased.

Suggested Citation

  • Sauro Mocetti & Eliana Viviano, 2015. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 999, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_999_15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Merike Kukk, 2019. "Debt repayment problems: short-term and long-term implications for spending," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 715-740, June.
    2. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
    3. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, November.
    4. Slaymaker, Rachel & O'Toole, Conor & McQuinn, Kieran & Fahy, Mike, 2018. "Monetary policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market," Papers WP613, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Wadud, Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Tang, Xueli, 2020. "Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Kelly, Jane & Mazza, Elena, 2019. "Mortgage servicing burdens and LTI caps," Financial Stability Notes 13/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2020. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Papers WP652, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Okechukwu D. Anyamele, 2018. "Racial Ethnic differences in Household Loan Delinquency Rate in recent financial crisis: Evidence from 2007 and 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-4.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage delinquency; income; selection; lending policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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