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Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia

  • Agatha M. Poroshina

    ()

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

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    This paper analyzes the problems of credit risk modeling of residential mortgage lending in Russia. Using unique mortgage loan and macro data from a regional branch of the Agency of Home Mortgage Lending (2008-2012), we find that borrower and mortgage loan characteristics affect the loan performance and play an important role in predicting default as well as a macroeconomic situation. On the residential mortgage market, borrowers with undeclared income have the lowest probability of default, mainly explained by the difference in declared and real income. Obtained results are robust under parametric and semiparametric specifications with correction for selectivity bias.

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    File URL: http://www.hse.ru/data/2014/04/22/1320077335/30FE2014.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Research University Higher School of Economics in its series HSE Working papers with number WP BRP 30/FE/2014.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: 2014
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in WP BRP Series: Financial Economics / FE, April 2014, pages - 38
    Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:30/fe/2014
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    1. Anthony M.J. Yezer & Robert F. Phillips & Robert P. Trost, 1994. "Bias in estimates of discrimination and default in mortgage lending: the effects of simultaneity and self-selection," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, pages 197-222.
    2. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    3. DellAriccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, João F., 2014. "A model of mortgage default," CFS Working Paper Series 452, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Maxam, Clark L & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2001. "Applied Nonparametric Regression Techniques: Estimating Prepayments on Fixed-Rate Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 139-60, September.
    8. John Y. Campbell, 2012. "Mortgage Market Design," NBER Working Papers 18339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert F. Phillips & Anthony M.J. Yezer, 1996. "Self-Selection and Tests for Bias and Risk in Mortgage Lending: Can You Price the Mortgage If You Don't Know the Process?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(1), pages 87-102.
    10. John Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2005. "Unobserved heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Working Paper 8585, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    11. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    12. Yongheng Deng & Andrey D. Pavlov & Lihong Yang, 2004. "Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default," Working Paper 8602, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    13. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Michael Creel, 2008. "Some possible pitfalls of parametric inference (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 4, pages 1-6, March.
    15. Orazio Attanasio & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Credit Constraints in the Market for Consumer Durables: Evidence from Micro Data on Car Loans," NBER Working Papers 7694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
    17. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    18. Francis Vella, 1998. "Estimating Models with Sample Selection Bias: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 127-169.
    19. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496, November.
    20. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2010. "The Determinants of Attitudes towards Strategic Default on Mortgages," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/31, European University Institute.
    21. Michael LaCour-Little & Michael Marschoun & Clark L. Maxam, 2002. "Improving Parametric Mortgage Prepayment Models with Non-parametric Kernel Regression," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 299-328.
    22. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1997. "Demographic versus Option-Driven Mortgage Terminations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 137-163, June.
    23. Pavlov, Andrey D, 2001. "Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances, Who Moves, and Who Defaults?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 185-211, September.
    24. Goldberg, Gerson M. & Harding, John P., 2003. "Investment characteristics of low- and moderate-income mortgage loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 151-180, September.
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