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Unobserved Heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks

  • John M. Clapp
  • Yongheng Deng
  • Xudong An

This article extends unobserved heterogeneity to the multinomial logit (MNL) model framework in the context of mortgages terminated by refinance, move or default. It tests for the importance of unobserved heterogeneity when borrower characteristics such as income, age and credit score are included to capture lender-observed heterogeneity. It does this by comparing the proportional hazard model to MNL with and without mass-point estimates of unobserved heterogeneous groups of borrowers. The mass-point mixed hazard (MMH) model yields larger and more significant coefficients for several important variables in the move model, whereas the MNL model without unobserved heterogeneity performs well with the refinance estimates. The MMH clearly dominates the alternative models in sample and out of sample. However, it is sometimes difficult to obtain convergence for the models estimated jointly with mass points. Copyright 2006 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 243-273

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:34:y:2006:i:2:p:243-273
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  1. John M. Clapp & Gerson M. Goldberg & John P. Harding & Michael LaCour-Little, 2001. "Movers and Shuckers: Interdependent Prepayment Decisions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-450.
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