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Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

  • Yuliya Demyanyk
  • Iftekhar Hasan

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0904.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0904
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  1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
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  8. Brent W. Ambrose & Charles A. Capone, . "The Hazard Rates of First and Second Default," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 301, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  9. Hunter, Greg, 2009. "Anatomy of the 2008 financial crisis: an economic analysis postmortem," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 27, pages 45-48.
  10. Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2003. "Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 279-301, November.
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  12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-44, May.
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  16. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1751, Econometric Society.
  17. Deng, Yongheng, 1997. "Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with a Stochastic Term Structure," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 309-31, May.
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  21. Cielen, Anja & Peeters, Ludo & Vanhoof, Koen, 2004. "Bankruptcy prediction using a data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 526-532, April.
  22. Canbas, Serpil & Cabuk, Altan & Kilic, Suleyman Bilgin, 2005. "Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 528-546, October.
  23. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Zopounidis, Constantin & Doumpos, Michael, 1999. "A Multicriteria Decision Aid Methodology for Sorting Decision Problems: The Case of Financial Distress," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 197-218, December.
  25. Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
  26. Yuliya Demyanyk, 2009. "Quick exits of subprime mortgages," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 79-94.
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