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Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default

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  • Yongheng Deng
  • Andrey D. Pavlov
  • Lihong Yang

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of spatially correlated unobservable variables on the refinancing, selling and default decisions of mortgage borrowers. Virtually the entire mortgage literature acknowledges that borrower-specific characteristics, such as culture, education or access to information, play an important role in mortgage termination decisions. While we do not observe these variables directly, we note that borrowers of similar background tend to cluster together in neighborhoods. We estimate a competing risks hazard model with random effects using a three-stage maximum likelihood estimation approach. We utilize the space-varying coefficient method to modify the covariance structure according to the spatial distribution of the observations. Beyond a significant improvement of the model performance, this yields a number of insightful implications for mortgage termination behavior. For instance, borrowers of the affluent "West Side" of Los Angeles County both refinance and move at a higher rate than predicted by the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. At the same time, borrowers from some lower-valued neighborhoods tend to stay longer than expected with their mortgages and properties. Copyright 2005 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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  • Yongheng Deng & Andrey D. Pavlov & Lihong Yang, 2005. "Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 739-764, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:33:y:2005:i:4:p:739-764
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Capone, Charles A, Jr, 2001. "Introduction to the Special Issue on Mortgage Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 131-137, September.
    2. Pavlov, Andrey D, 2001. "Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances, Who Moves, and Who Defaults?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 185-211, September.
    3. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    4. Andrey D. Pavlov, 2000. "Space-Varying Regression Coefficients: A Semi-parametric Approach Applied to Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 249-283.
    5. Stanton, Richard Henry, 1996. "Unobservable Heterogeneity and Rational Learning: Pool-Specific versus Generic Mortgage-Backed Security Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 243-263, May.
    6. John M. Clapp & Gerson M. Goldberg & John P. Harding & Michael LaCour-Little, 2001. "Movers and Shuckers: Interdependent Prepayment Decisions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-450.
    7. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller III, Walter J. & Epperson, James F., 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
    8. Quigley, John M, 1987. "Interest Rate Variations, Mortgage Prepayments and Household Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 636-643, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
    2. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    3. de Wit, Erik R. & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2013. "Asymmetric information and list-price reductions in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 507-520.
    4. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
    5. Yan Chang & Abdullah Yavas, 2009. "Do Borrowers Make Rational Choices on Points and Refinancing?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 635-658.
    6. Tracy M. Turner & Marc T. Smith, 2009. "Exits From Homeownership: The Effects Of Race, Ethnicity, And Income," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 1-32.
    7. Jonathan Spader, 2010. "Beyond Disparate Impact: Risk-based Pricing and Disparity in Consumer Credit History Scores," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 61-78, June.
    8. Roberto Quercia & Jonathan Spader, 2008. "Does homeownership counseling affect the prepayment and default behavior of affordable mortgage borrowers?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 304-325.
    9. Berndt, Antje & Hollifield, Burton & Sandås, Patrik, 2017. "What Broker Charges Reveal about Mortgage Credit Risk," Working Paper Series 336, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Agatha M. Poroshina, 2014. "Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 30/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Zhenguo Lin & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2009. "Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 387-407, May.
    12. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Hassler, Olivier, 2005. "The impact of the 2001 financial crisis and the economic policy responses on the Argentine mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 242-270, September.

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