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Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with Stochastic Term Structure

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  • Yongheng Deng

Abstract

Pricing for mortgage and mortgage-backed securities is complicated due to the stochastic and interdependent nature of prepayment and default risks. This paper presents a unified economic model of the contingent claims and competing risks of mortgage termination by prepayment and default. I adopt a proportional hazard framework to analyze these competing and interdependent risks in a model with time-varying covariates. The paper incorporates a stochastic interest rate model into the hazard function for prepayment. The empirical results reported in the paper provide new evidence about the ruthlessness of default and prepayment behavior and the sensitivity of these decisions to demographic as well as financial phenomena. The results also illustrate that evaluating the interest rate contingent claims with a stochastic term structure has effects on predicting not only the mortgage prepayment behavior but also the mortgage default behavior. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
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  • Yongheng Deng, "undated". "Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with Stochastic Term Structure," Working Papers _002, University of California at Berkeley, Econometrics Laboratory Software Archive.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:calbem:_002
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    1. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics,in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339 Elsevier.
    2. Stoker, Thomas M, 1986. "Consistent Estimation of Scaled Coefficients," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1461-1481, November.
    3. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics,in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339 Elsevier.
    4. Sherman, Robert P., 1994. "U-Processes in the Analysis of a Generalized Semiparametric Regression Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 372-395, June.
    5. Powell, James L. & Stock, James H. & Stoker, Thomas M., 1986. "Semiparametric estimation of weighted average derivatives," Working papers 1793-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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