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Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk

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  • Jacobson, Tor

    () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Roszbach, Kasper

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we apply a bivariate probit model to investigate the implications of bank lending policy. In the first equation we model the bank´s decision to grant a loan, in the second the probability of default. We confirm that banks provide loans in a way that is not consistent with default risk minimization. The lending policy must thus either be inefficient or be the result of some other type of optimizing behavior than expected profit maximization. Value at Risk, being a value weighted sum of individual risks, provides a more adequate measure of monetary losses on a portfolio of loans than default risk. We derive a Value at Risk measure for the sample portfolio of loans and show how analyzing this can enable financial institutions to evaluate alternative lending policies on the basis of their implied credit risk and loss rate, and make lending rates consistent with the implied Value at Risk.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk," Working Paper Series 68, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen D. Williamson, 1987. "Costly Monitoring, Loan Contracts, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 135-145.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    3. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2001. "Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 717-739, April.
    4. Kasper Roszbach, 2004. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 946-958, November.
    5. Jaffee, Dwight & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1990. "Credit rationing," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 837-888 Elsevier.
    6. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    7. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Odeh, Oluwarotimi O. & Featherstone, Allen M. & Sanjoy, Das, 2006. "Predicting Credit Default in an Agricultural Bank: Methods and Issues," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35359, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    3. McAndrew, Clare & Thompson, Rex, 2007. "The collateral value of fine art," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 589-607, March.
    4. Marshall, Andrew & Tang, Leilei & Milne, Alistair, 2010. "Variable reduction, sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 501-512, June.
    5. Elisa Ughetto & Andrea Vezzulli, 2011. "What role can mutual guarantee consortia play for financing innovation? A firm-level study for Italy," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 294-319.
    6. González-Cabán, Armando & Loomis, John B. & Rodriguez, Andrea & Hesseln, Hayley, 2007. "A comparison of CVM survey response rates, protests and willingness-to-pay of Native Americans and general population for fuels reduction policies," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 49-71, May.
    7. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:3:d:10.1057_jors.2009.66 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hartmann-Wendels, Thomas & Mählmann, Thomas & Versen, Tobias, 2009. "Determinants of banks' risk exposure to new account fraud - Evidence from Germany," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 347-357, February.
    9. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Grant, Charles & Padula, Mario, 2013. "Using bounds to investigate household debt repayment behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 336-354.
    11. Tuan, Tran Huu & Navrud, Stale, 2009. "Applying the dissonance-minimising format to value cultural heritage in developing countries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), September.
    12. Zongjun Wang & Gongkhonkwa Rujira, 2013. "The Dynamic Relationship of Stock Indexes on Interbank Money Market Rates: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 827-843.
    13. Evžen Kocenda & Martin Vojtek, 2011. "Default Predictors in Retail Credit Scoring: Evidence from Czech Banking Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 80-98, November.
    14. Erol Muzir, 2013. "Impact of Placement Choices and Governance Issues on Credit Risk in Banking: Nonparametric Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 3(4), pages 1-6, August.
    15. Agata M. Lozinskaia & Evgeniy M. Ozhegov & Alexander M. Karminsky, 2016. "Discontinuity in Relative Credit Losses: Evidence from Defaults on Government-Insured Residential Mortgages," HSE Working papers WP BRP 55/FE/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    16. Kasper Roszbach, 2004. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 946-958, November.
    17. Bücker, Michael & van Kampen, Maarten & Krämer, Walter, 2013. "Reject inference in consumer credit scoring with nonignorable missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1040-1045.
    18. Azam, Rehan & Muhammad, Danish & Syed Akbar, Suleman, 2012. "The significance of socioeconomic factors on personal loan decision a study of consumer banking local private banks in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 42322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kuhn, M.E. & Darroch, Mark A.G. & Ortmann, Gerald F., 2000. "Assessing the efficacy of a South African microlender's loan screening mechanism," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(4), December.
    20. João Fernandes, 2005. "Corporate Credit Risk Modeling: Quantitative Rating System And Probability Of Default Estimation," Finance 0505013, EconWPA.
    21. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:58:y:2007:i:10:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602306 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Lending policy; Credit scoring; Value at Risk; Bivariate probit;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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