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The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy

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  • Magri, Silvia
  • Pico, Raffaella

Abstract

This paper assesses how much mortgage interest rates in Italy are priced on credit risk as proxied by the probability of household mortgage delinquency estimated using the EU-Silc database. Owing to data availability, we restrict the analysis of mortgage pricing to Italian households. Consistent with the more widespread use of credit scoring, estimates indicate that Italian lenders have increasingly priced mortgage interest rates on household credit risk. For mortgages granted between 2000 and 2007, we find that a 1% point increase in the probability of default is associated with a 21 basis point rise in mortgage interest rates, lower than the 38 basis point premium Edelberg (2006) estimated for the US at the end of the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Magri, Silvia & Pico, Raffaella, 2011. "The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1277-1290, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:1277-1290
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    1. Duca, John V & Rosenthal, Stuart S, 1994. "Do Mortgage Rates Vary Based on Household Default Characteristics? Evidence on Rate Sorting and Credit Rationing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-113, March.
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    6. Edelberg, Wendy, 2006. "Risk-based pricing of interest rates for consumer loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2283-2298, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    2. Olympia Bover & Jose Maria Casado & Sonia Costa & Philip Du Caju & Yvonne McCarthy & Eva Sierminska & Panagiota Tzamourani & Ernesto Villanueva & Tibor Zavadil, 2016. "The Distribution of Debt across Euro-Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions, and Credit Conditions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 71-128, June.
    3. Valerio Vacca, 2011. "An unexpected crisis? Looking at pricing effectiveness of different banks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 814, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Guido de Blasio & Davide Fantino & Guido Pellegrini, 2015. "Evaluating the impact of innovation incentives: evidence from an unexpected shortage of funds," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1285-1314.
    5. Silvia Del Prete & Cristina Demma & Paola Rossi, 2017. "From few to many: product differentiation in the Italian mortgage market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9595-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 105/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    8. Silvia Magri, 2018. "Are lenders using risk-based pricing in the consumer loan market? The effects of the 2008 crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1164, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Elsa Fornero & Chiara Monticone & Serena Trucchi, 2011. "The effect of financial literacy on mortgage choices," CeRP Working Papers 121, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    10. Irina Stanga & Razvan Vlahu & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," DNB Working Papers 580, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage interest rate Mortgage delinquencies Risk-based pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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