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The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata

  • David ARISTEI
  • Manuela Gallo

This paper investigates the main determinants of household delinquency on mortgage loans in Italy. Using a sample-selection ordered choice model, we assess the impact of socio-demographic factors, loan characteristics and institutional variables both on the probability of delinquency in mortgage repayments and on the amount of arrears. Our results, based on microdata from the Italian component of the EU-SILC survey, allow to identify which types of households are more financially vulnerable and show the relevance of institutional factors in affecting the conditional intensity of arrears. Based on the predicted probabilities of arrears, we further analyse the relationship between interest rates on mortgage loans and observed borrower riskiness. Results point out that, in the whole period of analysis, Italian banks have accounted for household credit risk and have used risk-based pricing strategies in the process of mortgage loans granting.

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Paper provided by Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia in its series Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica with number 105/2012.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 15 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pia:wpaper:105/2012
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  1. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  2. Silvia Magri & Raffaella Pico, 2010. "The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 778, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  7. Giuseppe De Luca & Valeria Perotti, 2011. "Estimation of ordered response models with sample selection," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(2), pages 213-239, June.
  8. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "A double-hurdle approach to modelling tobacco consumption in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(19), pages 2463-2476.
  9. David Madden, 2006. "Sample Selection Versus Two-Part Models Revisited - The Case of Female Smoking and Drinking," Working Papers 200604, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
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  11. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "My Home Was My Castle: Evictions and Repossessions in Britain," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 287-319, December.
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  13. Duca, John V & Rosenthal, Stuart S, 1994. "Do Mortgage Rates Vary Based on Household Default Characteristics? Evidence on Rate Sorting and Credit Rationing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-113, March.
  14. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2002. "Information sharing, lending and defaults: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2017-2045, October.
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  18. Jones, Andrew M, 1989. "A Double-Hurdle Model of Cigarette Consumption," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 23-39, Jan.-Mar..
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  25. Scholtens, Bert & van Wensveen, Dick, 2000. "A critique on the theory of financial intermediation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1243-1251, August.
  26. Silvia Magri, 2007. "Italian households’ debt: the participation to the debt market and the size of the loan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 401-426, November.
  27. Harris, Mark N. & Zhao, Xueyan, 2007. "A zero-inflated ordered probit model, with an application to modelling tobacco consumption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1073-1099, December.
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