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When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach

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  • Orla May
  • Merxe Tudela

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s the volume of secured lending to households has expanded rapidly, both in absolute terms and in relation to household incomes. This paper examines the determinants of households' ability to service this stock of secured debt. It estimates a random effects probit model for the probability of households having mortgage payment problems. It is found that past experience of payment problems increases the probability that the household has difficulties servicing its secured debt today. At the household level, becoming unemployed, interest income gearing of 20% and above, high loan to value ratios and having a heavy burden of unsecured debt are all associated with a significantly higher probability of mortgage payment problems. Saving regularly and having unsecured debt which is not a problem are both associated with a significantly lower probability of mortgage payment problems. The only non-household-specific variable to have a significant effect is mortgage interest rates - the probability of payment problems increases with the level of mortgage interest rates. An aggregate measure of debt at risk is calculated. This has decreased between 1994 and 2002, as falls in the probability of mortgage payment problems have more than offset increases in the stock of mortgage debt outstanding. It is found that the fall in the probability of mortgage payment problems has been greatest among the most highly indebted households.

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  • Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:277
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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Bialowolski & Dorota Weziak-Bialowolska, 2014. "The Index of Household Financial Condition, Combining Subjective and Objective Indicators: An Appraisal of Italian Households," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 365-385, August.
    2. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschova, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2009. "Mortgage Indebtedness and Household Financial Distress," IZA Discussion Papers 4631, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    4. Giarda, Elena, 2013. "Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: Evidence from dynamic models for binary panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3425-3434.
    5. Burcu Duygan-Bump & Charles Grant, 2008. "Household debt repayment behaviour: what role do institutions play?," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Mikus Arins & Nadezda Sinenko & Laura Laube, 2014. "Survey-Based Assessment of Household Borrowers' Financial Vulnerability," Discussion Papers 2014/01, Latvijas Banka.
    7. repec:eee:wdevel:v:98:y:2017:i:c:p:338-350 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Magri, Silvia & Pico, Raffaella, 2011. "The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1277-1290, May.
    9. Felipe Martínez & Rodrigo Cifuentes & Carlos Madeira & Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, 2013. "Measurement of Household Financial Risk with the Survey of Household Finances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 682, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Chichaibelu, Bezawit & Waibel, Hermann, 2015. "The Interrelated Dynamics of Multiple Borrowing and Over-indebtedness among Rural Households in Thailand and Vietnam," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211463, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Brazil; Technical Note on Consumer Credit Growth and Household Financial Stress," IMF Staff Country Reports 13/149, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2007. "Integrating credit and interest rate risk: A theoretical framework and an application to banks' balance sheets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 151, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    13. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland : estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland.
    14. Mitropoulos, Atanasios & Zaidi, Rida, 2009. "Relative indicators of default risk among UK residential mortgages," MPRA Paper 19619, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sónia Costa, 2012. "Households’ Default Probability: An Analysis Based on the Results of the HFCS," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Roberto Blanco & Ricardo Gimeno, 2012. "Determinants of default ratios in the segment of loans to households in Spain," Working Papers 1210, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    17. Matthew Read & Chris Stewart & Gianni La Cava, 2014. "Mortgage-related Financial Difficulties: Evidence from Australian Micro-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-13, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 105/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    19. Michalis Petrides & Alex Karagrigoriou, 2008. "Determinants of Debt: An Econometric Analysis Based on the Cyprus Survey of Consumer Finances," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 45-64.
    20. Brown, Sarah & Ghosh, Pulak & Taylor, Karl, 2014. "The existence and persistence of household financial hardship: A Bayesian multivariate dynamic logit framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 285-298.
    21. Sarah Brown & Pulak Ghosh & Karl Taylor, 2012. "The Existence and Persistence of Household Financial Hardship," Working Papers 2012022, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    22. Beata Bierut, & Tomasz Chmielewski & Adam Głogowski, & Sławomir Zajączkowski & Andrzej Stopczyński, 2015. "Implementing Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income ratios: Learning from country experiences. The case of Poland," NBP Working Papers 212, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    23. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Brazil; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 12/192, International Monetary Fund.

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