IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/277.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach

Author

Listed:
  • Orla May
  • Merxe Tudela

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s the volume of secured lending to households has expanded rapidly, both in absolute terms and in relation to household incomes. This paper examines the determinants of households' ability to service this stock of secured debt. It estimates a random effects probit model for the probability of households having mortgage payment problems. It is found that past experience of payment problems increases the probability that the household has difficulties servicing its secured debt today. At the household level, becoming unemployed, interest income gearing of 20% and above, high loan to value ratios and having a heavy burden of unsecured debt are all associated with a significantly higher probability of mortgage payment problems. Saving regularly and having unsecured debt which is not a problem are both associated with a significantly lower probability of mortgage payment problems. The only non-household-specific variable to have a significant effect is mortgage interest rates - the probability of payment problems increases with the level of mortgage interest rates. An aggregate measure of debt at risk is calculated. This has decreased between 1994 and 2002, as falls in the probability of mortgage payment problems have more than offset increases in the stock of mortgage debt outstanding. It is found that the fall in the probability of mortgage payment problems has been greatest among the most highly indebted households.

Suggested Citation

  • Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:277
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2005/WP277.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Jerry Hausman, 2001. "Mismeasured Variables in Econometric Analysis: Problems from the Right and Problems from the Left," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 57-67, Fall.
    4. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
    5. Wiji Arulampalam & Alison L. Booth, 2000. "Union status of young men in Britain: a decade of change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 289-310.
    6. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael, 2001. "Computationally intensive methods for integration in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 56, pages 3463-3568, Elsevier.
    7. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318, Elsevier.
    8. Ana Lasaosa, 2007. "Learning the Rules of the New Game? Comparing the Reactions in Financial Markets to Announcements before and after the Bank of England's Operational Independence," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 10(1), pages 18-41, Summer.
    9. Victoria Redwood & Merxe Tudela, 2004. "From tiny samples do mighty populations grow? Using the British Household Panel Survey to analyse the household sector balance sheet," Bank of England working papers 239, Bank of England.
    10. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "My Home Was My Castle: Evictions and Repossessions in Britain," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 287-319, December.
    11. John Whitley & Richard Windram & Prudence Cox, 2004. "An empirical model of household arrears," Bank of England working papers 214, Bank of England.
    12. Andrew Henley, 2004. "Self-Employment Status: The Role of State Dependence and Initial Circumstances," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 67-82, February.
    13. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    14. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giarda, Elena, 2013. "Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: Evidence from dynamic models for binary panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3425-3434.
    2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," Economics Series Working Papers 499, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Kevin Denny & Orla Doyle, 2009. "Does Voting History Matter? Analysing Persistence in Turnout," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 17-35, January.
    4. Hämäläinen, Kari, 2003. "Education and Unemployment: State Dependence in Unemployment Among Young People in the 1990s," Discussion Papers 312, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Sarah Brown, 2015. "Household repayment behaviour and neighbourhood effects," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(6), pages 1169-1188, May.
    6. Georgios Marios Chrysanthou, 2007. "Determinants of Trade Union Membership in Great Britain During 1991-2003," Discussion Papers 07/01, Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    8. Amynah Gangji & Robert Plasman, 2008. "Microeconomic analysis of unemployment persistence in Belgium," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 280-298, June.
    9. Jorge E. Galán & Matías Lamas, 2019. "Beyond the LTV ratio: new macroprudential lessons from Spain," Working Papers 1931, Banco de España.
    10. Adele Bergin, 2015. "Employer Changes and Wage Changes: Estimation with Measurement Error in a Binary Variable," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 29(2), pages 194-223, June.
    11. Troske, Kenneth R. & Voicu, Alexandru, 2010. "Joint estimation of sequential labor force participation and fertility decisions using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 150-169, January.
    12. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2002. "State Dependence in Unemployment Incidence: Evidence for British Men Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 630, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Colm Harmon & Claire Finn, 2006. "A dynamic model of demand for private health insurance in Ireland," Open Access publications 10197/666, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    14. Yokoo, Hide-Fumi & Arimura, Toshi H. & Chattopadhyay, Mriduchhanda & Katayama, Hajime, 2023. "Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Carlsson, Fredrik & Kataria, Mitesh, 2016. "How are you? How's it going? What's up? What's happening? Nudging people to tell us how they really are," Working Papers in Economics 649, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2005. "Employment Dynamics of Married Women in Europe," Working Papers WR-273, RAND Corporation.
    17. Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Tell me why I don't like Mondays: investigating day of the week effects on job satisfaction and psychological well‐being," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(1), pages 127-142, January.
    18. Ken Clark & Nikolaos C. Kanellopoulos, 2009. "Low Pay Persistence in European Countries," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 207, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    19. Michael P. Keane & Robert M. Sauer, 2010. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimation Algorithm For Dynamic Panel Data Models With Unobserved Endogenous State Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 925-958, November.
    20. Sara Ayllón, 2009. "Modelling State Dependence and Feedback Effects between Poverty, Employment and Parental Home Emancipation among European Youth," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 235, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.