IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v17y2010i1p150-169.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Joint estimation of sequential labor force participation and fertility decisions using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Troske, Kenneth R.
  • Voicu, Alexandru

Abstract

We analyze the effect of children on the labor supply of married women in a framework that accounts for the endogeneity of labor market and fertility decisions, for the heterogeneity of the effects of children and their correlation with the fertility decisions, and for the correlation of sequential labor market decisions. Women with stronger propensity for market work have fewer children, work more before the first birth, and face larger negative effects of children. The total effect of a child remains considerable long after birth; prior birth-related reductions in labor supply account for a significant share of the total effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Troske, Kenneth R. & Voicu, Alexandru, 2010. "Joint estimation of sequential labor force participation and fertility decisions using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 150-169, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:150-169
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927-5371(09)00073-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Life-Cycle Labor Supply and Fertility: Causal Inferences from Household Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 328-348, April.
    2. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
    3. David S. Loughran & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2009. "Why Wait?: The Effect of Marriage and Childbearing on the Wages of Men and Women," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    5. Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January.
    6. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-477, June.
    7. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    8. Gianna Claudia Giannelli, 1996. "Women`s transitions in the labour market: A competing risks analysis on German panel data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 287-300.
    9. Heckman, James J & Willis, Robert J, 1977. "A Beta-logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 27-58, February.
    10. Balestra, Pietro & Negassi, Syoum, 1992. "A Random Coefficient Simultaneous Equation System with an Application to Direct Foreign Investment by French Firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 205-220.
    11. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael, 2001. "Computationally intensive methods for integration in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 56, pages 3463-3568 Elsevier.
    12. Mincer, Jacob & Polachek, Solomon, 1974. "Family Investment in Human Capital: Earnings of Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 76-108, Part II, .
    13. Arleen Leibowitz & Jacob Alex Klerman & Linda J. Waite, 1992. "Employment of New Mothers and Child Care Choice: Differences by Children's Age," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 27(1), pages 112-133.
    14. Daniel Aaronson, 1998. "Using Sibling Data to Estimate the Impact of Neighborhoods on Children's Educational Outcomes," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(4), pages 915-946.
    15. Altonji, Joseph G. & Blank, Rebecca M., 1999. "Race and gender in the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 48, pages 3143-3259 Elsevier.
    16. Ondrich, Jan & Spiess, C Katharina & Yang, Qing, 1996. "Barefoot and in a German Kitchen: Federal Parental Leave and Benefit Policy and the Return to Work after Childbirth in Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 247-266, August.
    17. Jacob Mincer & Solomon Polachek, 1978. "An Exchange: The Theory of Human Capital and the Earnings of Women: Women's Earnings Reexamined," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 13(1), pages 118-134.
    18. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    19. Reuben Gronau, 1974. "The Effect of Children on the Housewife's Value of Time," NBER Chapters,in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 457-490 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    21. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
    22. Geweke, John F. & Keane, Michael P. & Runkle, David E., 1997. "Statistical inference in the multinomial multiperiod probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 125-165, September.
    23. Mortensen, Dale T., 1987. "Job search and labor market analysis," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 849-919 Elsevier.
    24. Blank, Rebecca M, 1989. "The Role of Part-Time Work in Women's Labor Market Choices over Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 295-299, May.
    25. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1994. "An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 207-240.
    26. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    27. John F. Geweke & Michael P. Keane, 1996. "Bayesian inference for dynamic choice models without the need for dynamic programming," Working Papers 564, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    28. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2004. "Parental Employment and Child Cognitive Development," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(1).
    29. Francis Vella & Marno Verbeek, 1998. "Whose wages do unions raise? A dynamic model of unionism and wage rate determination for young men," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 163-183.
    30. Voicu, Alexandru & Buddelmeyer, Hielke, 2003. "Children and Women's Participation Dynamics: Transitory and Long-Term Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 729, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    31. Arellano, Manuel & Honore, Bo, 2001. "Panel data models: some recent developments," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 53, pages 3229-3296 Elsevier.
    32. Jacob Mincer, 1962. "Labor Force Participation of Married Women: A Study of Labor Supply," NBER Chapters,in: Aspects of Labor Economics, pages 63-105 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Jane Waldfogel & Wen-Jui Han & Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, 2002. "The effects of early maternal employment on child cognitive development," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 369-392, May.
    34. Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267.
    35. Carrasco, Raquel, 2001. "Binary Choice with Binary Endogenous Regressors in Panel Data: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Female Labor Participation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 385-394, October.
    36. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    37. Evelyn L. Lehrer, 1992. "The Impact of Children on Married Women's Labor Supply: Black-White Differentials Revisited," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 27(3), pages 422-444.
    38. Folbre, Nancy, 1994. "Children as Public Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 86-90, May.
    39. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
    40. Arellano, Manuel & Carrasco, Raquel, 2003. "Binary choice panel data models with predetermined variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 125-157, July.
    41. Browning, Martin, 1992. "Children and Household Economic Behavior," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1434-1475, September.
    42. Hsiao, Cheng & Appelbe, Trent W. & Dineen, Christopher R., 1993. "A general framework for panel data models with an application to Canadian customer-dialed long distance telephone service," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 63-86, September.
    43. William Axinn & Marin Clarkberg & Arland Thornton, 1994. "Family influences on family size preferences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(1), pages 65-79, February.
    44. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
    45. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    46. C. Russell Hill & Frank P. Stafford, 1980. "Parental Care of Children: Time Diary Estimates of Quantity, Predictability, and Variety," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 15(2), pages 219-239.
    47. R. Haurin & Frank Mott, 1990. "Adolescent sexual activity in the family context: The impact of older siblings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(4), pages 537-557, November.
    48. Daniel Powers & James Cherng-Tay Hsueh, 1997. "Sibling models of socioeconomic effects on the timing of first premarital birth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(4), pages 493-511, November.
    49. Alice Nakamura & Masao Nakamura, 1994. "Predicting Female Labor Supply: Effects of Children and Recent Work Experience," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(2), pages 304-327.
    50. Kelejian, Harry H, 1974. "Random Parameters in a Simultaneous Equation Framework: Identification and Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 517-527, May.
    51. David Shapiro & Frank L. Mott, 1994. "Long-Term Employment and Earnings of Women in Relation to Employment Behavior Surrounding the First Birth," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(2), pages 248-275.
    52. Ronsen, Marit & Sundstrom, Marianne, 1996. "Maternal Employment in Scandinavia: A Comparison of the After-Birth Employment Activity of Norwegian and Swedish Women," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 267-285, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    2. Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Christoph Pamminger & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2016. "Mothers' long-run career patterns after first birth," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 707-725, June.
    3. Xiaoyan Chen Youderian, 2014. "The motherhood wage penalty and non-working women," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 757-765.
    4. Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Marie Paul & Núria Rodríguez-Planas, 2015. "Part-Time Work, Fixed-Term Contracts, and the Returns to Experience," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(4), pages 512-541, August.
    5. Kenneth Troske & Alexandru Voicu, 2013. "The effect of the timing and spacing of births on the level of labor market involvement of married women," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 483-521, August.
    6. Elena Bardasi & Chiara Monfardini, 2004. "Women's Employment, Children and Transition: An Empirical Analysis on Poland," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp25, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 15 Oct 2004.
    7. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Sommerfeld, Katrin & Steffes, Susanne, 2013. "Causal effects on employment after first birth — A dynamic treatment approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 49-62.
    8. Peter Haan & Daniel Kemptner & Arne Uhlendorff, 2015. "Bayesian procedures as a numerical tool for the estimation of an intertemporal discrete choice model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1123-1141, November.
    9. OKAMURA Kazuaki & ISLAM Nizamul, 2017. "The Effects of the Timing of Childbirth on Female Labour Supply: An Analysis using the Sequential Matching Approach," LISER Working Paper Series 2017-14, LISER.
    10. Paul, Marie & Fernandez-Kranz, Daniel & Rodriguez-Planas, Nuria, 2014. "The Wage Effects of Fixed-term Contract Employment Revisited: an Investigation Based on Social Security Records," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100324, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Female labor supply Endogenous fertility decisions Heterogeneous children effects Multinomial probit model Gibbs sampler;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:150-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.