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State Dependence in a Multi-state Model of Employment

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Abstract

A multinomial choice framework is used to investigate the nature of women's transitions between full-time employment, part-time employment and non-employment. The stochastic framework allows time varying and time invariant unobserved preferences, and also controls for the possible endogenity of education, fertility and non-labor income. Significant positive true state dependence is found in both full-time and part-time employment. This finding is robust to the specification of unobserved preferences. The results are used the assess the dynamic effects of three temporary wage subsidies. All three policies have substantial effects on employment behavior for up to 6 years. However, obtaining a permanent increase in employment requires sustained or repeated interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Victoria Prowse, 2005. "State Dependence in a Multi-state Model of Employment," Economics Papers 2005-W20, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0520
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    1. Victoria Prowse, 2012. "Modeling Employment Dynamics With State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 411-431, April.
    2. Nisar Ahmad & Rayhaneh Esmaeilzadeh, 2009. "Immigrant-Native Differences in Earnings Mobility Processes: Evidence from Canadian and Danish Data," Economics Working Papers 2009-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Piacentini, Mario, 2008. "Migration Enclaves, Schooling Choices and Social Mobility," MPRA Paper 8376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Anna Kurowska & Michal Myck & Katharina Wrohlich, 2012. "Family and Labor Market Choices: Requirements to Guide Effective Evidence-Based Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1234, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Nisar Ahmad & Rayhaneh Esmaeilzadeh & J?rgen Hansen, 2014. "Immigrant-Native Differences in Earnings Mobility Processes," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 4, pages 13-32, Feburary.
    6. Peter Haan & Arne Uhlendorff, 2013. "Intertemporal labor supply and involuntary unemployment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 661-683, April.
    7. Peter Haan, 2007. "Intertemporal Labor Supply Effects of Tax Reforms," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 669, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Nisar Ahmad, 2014. "State Dependence in Unemployment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 93-106.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic labor supply; Heterogeneity; Multinomial choice; State dependence.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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