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Modeling employment dynamics with state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity

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  • Prowse, Victoria

Abstract

We extend existing work on the dynamics of labor force participation by distinguishing between full-time and part-time employment and by allowing unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of previous employment outcomes, children and education on labor supply behavior. In addition, unobserved heterogeneity may feature autocorrelation and correlated random effects. Our results reveal significant variation in the effects of children and education on labor supply behavior. Moreover, the omission of random coefficients and autocorrelation biases estimates of state dependencies. On average, temporary shocks that increase the rate of part-time employment lead subsequently to lower rates of non-employment than do shocks that temporarily increase the rate of full-time work.

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  • Prowse, Victoria, 2012. "Modeling employment dynamics with state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity," MPRA Paper 38038, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38038
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    2. Lixin Cai, 2015. "The dynamics of low pay employment in Australia," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(7), pages 1095-1123, October.
    3. Lechmann, Daniel S. J. & Wunder, Christoph, 2016. "The dynamics of solo self-employment: Persistence and transition to employership," Discussion Papers 98, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    4. Mario Bossler & Alexander Mosthaf & Thorsten Schank, 2016. "More Female Manager Hires through More Female Managers? Evidence from Germany," Working Papers 1618, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
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    6. Taehyun Ahn, 2010. "Employment Dynamics of Married Women and the Role of Part-Time Work: Evidence from Korea," Working Papers 1003, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
    7. Nolte, Andre & Gürtzgen, Nicole, 2015. "Changing Fortunes during Economic Transition - Low-Wage Persistence before and after German Unification," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112828, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Peter Haan & Daniel Kemptner & Arne Uhlendorff, 2015. "Bayesian procedures as a numerical tool for the estimation of an intertemporal discrete choice model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1123-1141, November.
    9. Regina T. Riphahn & Christoph Wunder, 2016. "State dependence in welfare receipt: transitions before and after a reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1303-1329, June.
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    11. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    12. Yi, DongGyu, 2014. "Three studies on environmental valuation," ISU General Staff Papers 201401010800005065, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Ahn, Taehyun, 2012. "Employment Dynamics of Married Women and the Role of Part-time Work: the Case of Korea," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(1), pages 25-38, June.
    14. Daniel S.J. Lechmann & Christoph Wunder, 2017. "The Dynamics of Solo Self-Employment: Persistence and Transition to Employership," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 932, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    15. Michelle van der Merwe, 2016. "Factors Affecting an Individual's Future Labour Market Status," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 11-22, December.
    16. K. Sudhir & Nathan Yang, 2014. "Exploiting the Choice-Consumption Mismatch: A New Approach to Disentangle State Dependence and Heterogeneity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1941, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. Haan, Peter, 2010. "A Multi-state model of state dependence in labor supply: Intertemporal labor supply effects of a shift from joint to individual taxation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 323-335, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discrete Labor Supply; Repeated Multinomial Choice; Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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