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Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques

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  • Troske, Kenneth

    (University of Kentucky)

  • Voicu, Alexandru

    (CUNY - College of Staten Island)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the causal effect of children on the labor supply of women using panel data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). We examine the effect of children both prior to and after birth as well as how the effect of children varies with the number of children. We also decompose the total effect of children into the direct and indirect components and separately examine the dynamics of these components. Sequential participation decisions for four levels of labor market involvement and fertility decisions are jointly modeled. We allow decisions to be correlated in a general fashion both across time and across choices. The estimation is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We find that children have a strong effect on a women's labor market behavior in both the pre- and post-birth period. We also find that both the direct and indirect effects are large immediately after the birth of a child but that the indirect effect declines quickly over time. The effects of children vary by education and race.

Suggested Citation

  • Troske, Kenneth & Voicu, Alexandru, 2004. "Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques," IZA Discussion Papers 1251, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1251
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Christoph Pamminger & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2016. "Mothers' long-run career patterns after first birth," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 707-725, June.
    3. Xiaoyan Chen Youderian, 2014. "The motherhood wage penalty and non-working women," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 757-765.
    4. Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Marie Paul & Núria Rodríguez-Planas, 2015. "Part-Time Work, Fixed-Term Contracts, and the Returns to Experience," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(4), pages 512-541, August.
    5. Kenneth Troske & Alexandru Voicu, 2013. "The effect of the timing and spacing of births on the level of labor market involvement of married women," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 483-521, August.
    6. Elena Bardasi & Chiara Monfardini, 2004. "Women's Employment, Children and Transition: An Empirical Analysis on Poland," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp25, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 15 Oct 2004.
    7. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Sommerfeld, Katrin & Steffes, Susanne, 2013. "Causal effects on employment after first birth — A dynamic treatment approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 49-62.
    8. Kazuaki Okamura & Nizamul Islam, 2021. "Effects of the timing of childbirth on female labor supply: an analysis using the sequential matching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(28), pages 3253-3266, June.
    9. Peter Haan & Daniel Kemptner & Arne Uhlendorff, 2015. "Bayesian procedures as a numerical tool for the estimation of an intertemporal discrete choice model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1123-1141, November.
    10. Michael Anyadike-Danes & Duncan McVicar, 2010. "My Brilliant Career: Characterizing the Early Labor Market Trajectories of British Women From Generation X," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 38(3), pages 482-512, February.
    11. Sophie-Charlotte Klose, 2020. "Identifying Latent Structures in Maternal Employment: Evidence on the German Parental Benefit Reform," Papers 2011.03541, arXiv.org.
    12. Paul, Marie & Fernandez-Kranz, Daniel & Rodriguez-Planas, Nuria, 2014. "The Wage Effects of Fixed-term Contract Employment Revisited: an Investigation Based on Social Security Records," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100324, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    female labor supply; Gibbs sampler; multivariate probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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