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A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimation Algorithm For Dynamic Panel Data Models With Unobserved Endogenous State Variables

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  • Michael P. Keane
  • Robert M. Sauer

Abstract

This article develops a simulation estimation algorithm that is particularly useful for estimating dynamic panel data models with unobserved endogenous state variables. Repeated sampling experiments on dynamic probit models with serially correlated errors indicate the estimator has good small sample properties. We apply the estimator to a model of female labor supply and show that the rarely used Polya model fits the data substantially better than the popular Markov model. The Polya model also produces far less state dependence and many fewer race effects and much stronger effects of education, young children, and husband's income on female labor supply decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Keane & Robert M. Sauer, 2010. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimation Algorithm For Dynamic Panel Data Models With Unobserved Endogenous State Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 925-958, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:51:y:2010:i:4:p:925-958
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00606.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 2001. "The Effect of Parental Transfers and Borrowing Constraints on Educational Attainment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1051-1103, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Amador, 2017. "The Consequences of Abortion and Contraception Policies on Young Women’s Reproductive Choices, Schooling and Labor Supply," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 015635, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    2. Handel, Benjamin R. & Misra, Kanishka & Roberts, James W., 2013. "Robust firm pricing with panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 165-185.
    3. Murat G. Kirdar, 2005. "Return Migration and Saving Behavior of Foreign Workers in Germany," ERC Working Papers 0506, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2005.
    4. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2010. "The Role Of Labor And Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity, And The Welfare System In The Life Cycle Decisions Of Black, Hispanic, And White Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 851-892, August.
    5. Pavan, Marina, 2008. "Consumer durables and risky borrowing: The effects of bankruptcy protection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1441-1456, November.
    6. Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand," Economics Papers 2013-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. Malik, Sheheryar & Pitt, Michael K., 2011. "Particle filters for continuous likelihood evaluation and maximisation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 190-209.
    8. Murat G. Kirdar, 2012. "Estimating The Impact Of Immigrants On The Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration Is An Endogenous Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 453-486, May.
    9. M. P. Keane & R. M. Sauer, 2008. "Implications of Classification Error for the Dynamics of Female Labor Supply," CHILD Working Papers wp13_08, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
    10. Del Boca, Daniela & Sauer, Robert M., 2009. "Life cycle employment and fertility across institutional environments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 274-292, April.
    11. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2007. "Exploring The Usefulness Of A Nonrandom Holdout Sample For Model Validation: Welfare Effects On Female Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1351-1378, November.
    12. Keane, Michael P. & Todd, Petra E. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2011. "The Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models: Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Methods and Applications," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier.
    13. Sauer, Robert M. & Taber, Christopher, 2017. "Indirect Inference with Importance Sampling: An Application to Women's Wage Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11004, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Michael P. Keane & Robert M. Sauer, 2009. "Classification Error in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Implications for Female Labor Supply Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 975-991, May.
    15. Antonio Merlo & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2008. "The Transition from School to Jail: Youth Crime and High School Completion Among Black Males, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 16 Jan 2009.
    16. Robert M. Sauer, 2015. "Does It Pay For Women To Volunteer?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 537-564, May.
    17. Merlo, Antonio & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2015. "The transition from school to jail: Youth crime and high school completion among black males," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 234-251.
    18. Malik, Sheheryar & Pitt, Michael K, 2009. "Modelling Stochastic Volatility with Leverage and Jumps : A Simulated Maximum Likelihood Approach via Particle Filtering," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 897, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    19. Murat G. Kirdar, 2004. "An Estimable Dynamic Model of Asset Accumulation and Return Migration," ERC Working Papers 0416, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2004.
    20. Tue Gorgens & Sanghyeok Lee, 2017. "Estimation of dynamic models of recurring events with censored data," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2017-655, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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