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Classification Error in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Implications for Female Labor Supply Behavior

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  • Michael P. Keane
  • Robert M. Sauer

Abstract

Two key issues in the literature on female labor supply are (i) whether persistence in employment status is due to unobserved heterogeneity or state dependence, and (ii) whether fertility is exogenous to labor supply. Until recently, the consensus was that unobserved heterogeneity is very important and fertility is endogenous. Hyslop (1999) challenged this. Using a dynamic panel probit model of female labor supply including heterogeneity and state dependence, he found that adding autoregressive errors led to a substantial diminution in the importance of heterogeneity. This, in turn, meant he could not reject that fertility is exogenous. Here, we extend Hyslop (1999) to allow classification error in employment status, using an estimation procedure developed by Keane and Wolpin (2001) and Keane and Sauer (2005). We find that a fairly small amount of classification error is enough to overturn Hyslop's conclusions, leading to overwhelming rejection of the hypothesis of exogenous fertility. Copyright 2009 The Econometric Society.

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  • Michael P. Keane & Robert M. Sauer, 2009. "Classification Error in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Implications for Female Labor Supply Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 975-991, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:77:y:2009:i:3:p:975-991
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Amador, 2017. "The Consequences of Abortion and Contraception Policies on Young Women’s Reproductive Choices, Schooling and Labor Supply," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 015635, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    2. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    3. Handel, Benjamin R. & Misra, Kanishka & Roberts, James W., 2013. "Robust firm pricing with panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 165-185.
    4. Enrica Croda & Ekaterini Kyriazidou & Iannis Polycarpou, 2011. "Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women in Germany: A Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers 2011_17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. repec:eee:ecolet:v:155:y:2017:i:c:p:19-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Malik, Sheheryar & Pitt, Michael K., 2011. "Particle filters for continuous likelihood evaluation and maximisation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 190-209.
    7. M. P. Keane & R. M. Sauer, 2008. "Implications of Classification Error for the Dynamics of Female Labor Supply," CHILD Working Papers wp13_08, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
    8. Ou Yang & Xueyan Zhao & Preety Srivastava, 2015. "Binge Drinking, Antisocial and Unlawful Behaviours, and Beverage Types," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2015n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. repec:eee:econom:v:201:y:2017:i:2:p:237-248 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Del Boca, Daniela & Sauer, Robert M., 2009. "Life cycle employment and fertility across institutional environments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 274-292, April.
    11. Paul Sullivan, 2009. "Estimation of an Occupational Choice Model when Occupations are Misclassified," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    12. Bonhomme, Stéphane & Jochmans, Koen & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of non-exchangeable latent-variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 237-248.
    13. Ou Yang & Xueyan Zhao & Preety Srivastava, 2016. "Binge Drinking and Antisocial and Unlawful Behaviours in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 222-240, June.
    14. Pigini, Claudia & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2016. "State dependence in access to credit," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 17-34.
    15. Stéphane Bonhomme & Koen Jochmans & Jean-Marc Robin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of non-exchangeable latent-variable models," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4m4fqk908d9, Sciences Po.
    16. Giulia Bettin & Riccardo Lucchetti, 2016. "Steady streams and sudden bursts: persistence patterns in remittance decisions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 263-292, January.
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    18. Robert M. Sauer, 2015. "Does It Pay For Women To Volunteer?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 537-564, May.
    19. Moshe Buchinsky, 2008. "Residential Location in Israel," 2008 Meeting Papers 931, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pigini, Claudia, 2017. "DPB: Dynamic Panel Binary Data Models in gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 79(i08).
    21. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini, 2017. "Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models," Working Papers 421, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    22. Hyslop, Dean R. & Townsend, Wilbur, 2017. "Employment misclassification in survey and administrative reports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 19-23.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior

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