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The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy

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  • Silvia Magri

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Raffaella Pico

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The paper assesses the extent to which mortgage rates in Italy are priced according to credit risk as proxied by the probability of household mortgage delinquency estimated using the EU-Silc database. For reasons of data availability we restrict the analysis of mortgage pricing to Italian households. Consistent with the more extensive use of credit scoring techniques, our estimates indicate that Italian lenders have increasingly priced mortgage interest rates with reference to credit risk. For mortgages granted between 2000 and 2007, a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of default is associated with a 21 basis point rise in mortgage interest rates, less than the 38 basis point premium Edelberg (2006) estimated for the U.S. at the end of the '90s.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Magri & Raffaella Pico, 2010. "The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 778, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_778_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duca, John V & Rosenthal, Stuart S, 1994. "Do Mortgage Rates Vary Based on Household Default Characteristics? Evidence on Rate Sorting and Credit Rationing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-113, March.
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    6. Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
    7. Berger, Allen N & Frame, W Scott & Miller, Nathan H, 2005. "Credit Scoring and the Availability, Price, and Risk of Small Business Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 191-222, April.
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    11. Wendy Edelberg, 2003. "Risk-based pricing of interest rates in household loan markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Del Prete & Cristina Demma & Paola Rossi, 2017. "From few to many: product differentiation in the Italian mortgage market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    3. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9595-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Olympia Bover & Jose Maria Casado & Sonia Costa & Philip Du Caju & Yvonne McCarthy & Eva Sierminska & Panagiota Tzamourani & Ernesto Villanueva & Tibor Zavadil, 2016. "The Distribution of Debt across Euro-Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions, and Credit Conditions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 71-128, June.
    5. David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "The Drivers of Household Over-Indebtedness and Delinquency on Mortgage Loans: Evidence from Italian Microdata," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 105/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    6. Guido de Blasio & Davide Fantino & Guido Pellegrini, 2015. "Evaluating the impact of innovation incentives: evidence from an unexpected shortage of funds," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1285-1314.
    7. Valerio Vacca, 2011. "An unexpected crisis? Looking at pricing effectiveness of different banks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 814, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Silvia Magri, 2018. "Are lenders using risk-based pricing in the consumer loan market? The effects of the 2008 crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1164, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Elsa Fornero & Chiara Monticone & Serena Trucchi, 2011. "The effect of financial literacy on mortgage choices," CeRP Working Papers 121, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    10. Irina Stanga & Razvan Vlahu & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," DNB Working Papers 580, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage interest rate; mortgage delinquencies; risk-based pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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