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The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Magri

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Raffaella Pico

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The paper assesses the extent to which mortgage rates in Italy are priced according to credit risk as proxied by the probability of household mortgage delinquency estimated using the EU-Silc database. For reasons of data availability we restrict the analysis of mortgage pricing to Italian households. Consistent with the more extensive use of credit scoring techniques, our estimates indicate that Italian lenders have increasingly priced mortgage interest rates with reference to credit risk. For mortgages granted between 2000 and 2007, a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of default is associated with a 21 basis point rise in mortgage interest rates, less than the 38 basis point premium Edelberg (2006) estimated for the U.S. at the end of the '90s.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Magri & Raffaella Pico, 2010. "The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 778, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_778_10
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    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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