IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp1396.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Diaz-Serrano, Luis

    (Universitat Rovira i Virgili)

Abstract

We investigate the socio-economic determinants of mortgage delinquency in 12 EU countries and observe that income volatility significantly increases the mortgage delinquency risk. This pattern even holds for borrowers with higher-income profiles if volatility in income is high enough. From this result we can draw the following conclusions: i) mortgage protection insurance policies might be failing to cover those borrowers most in need; ii) the existence of credit market imperfections, and; iii) the inability for a number of borrowers most at income risk to accumulate precautionary savings in order to meet mortgage payments when shocks in income arise.

Suggested Citation

  • Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1396
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp1396.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
    2. Ross, Stephen L. & Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 2004. "Redlining, the Community Reinvestment Act, and private mortgage insurance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 278-297, March.
    3. Arrondel, Luc, 2002. "Risk management and wealth accumulation behavior in France," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 187-194, January.
    4. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    5. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September.
    6. R. Jeffery Green & George M. von Furstenberg, 1975. "The Effects of Race and Age of Housing on Mortgage Delinquency Risk," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 85-89, February.
    7. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Labor income uncertainty, skewness and homeownership: A panel data study for Germany and Spain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 156-176, July.
    8. Thomas M. Springer & Neil G. Waller, 1993. "Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 27-46, March.
    9. Kerry D. Vandell & Thomas Thibodeau, 1985. "Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 292-316, September.
    10. Gwilym Pryce & Margaret Keoghan, 2002. "Unemployment insurance for mortgage borrowers: is it viable and does it cover those most in need?," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 87-114.
    11. Richard Anderson & James VanderHoff, 1999. "Mortgage Default Rates and Borrower Race," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 279-290.
    12. Piet M.A. Eichholtz, 1995. "Regional Economic Stability and Mortgage Default Risk in the Netherlands," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 421-439, December.
    13. Hartog, Joop & Vijverberg, Wim P., 2002. "Do Wages Really Compensate for Risk Aversion and Skewness Affection?," IZA Discussion Papers 426, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Pryce, Gwilym, 2002. "Theory and Estimation of the Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance Decision," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 216-234, May.
    15. Peter Chinloy, 1995. "Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 401-420, December.
    16. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
    17. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "On the negative relationship between labor income uncertainty and homeownership: Risk-aversion vs. credit constraints," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 109-126, June.
    18. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    19. Robst, John & Deitz, Richard & McGoldrick, KimMarie, 1999. "Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 219-229, March.
    20. Joop Hartog & Erik Plug & Luis Diaz Serrano & Jose Vieira, 2003. "Risk compensation in wages – a replication," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 639-647, July.
    21. Stephen L Ross, 2000. "Mortgage Lending, Sample Selection and Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 581-621.
    22. Jan K. Brueckner, 1985. "A Simple Model of Mortgage Insurance," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 129-142, June.
    23. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1998. "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 449-453, May.
    24. Gwilym Pryce, 2002. "Theory and Estimation of the Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance Decision," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 216-234, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    2. Avram, Silvia, 2020. "Labour market flexibility and unemployment duration: evidence from the UK," ISER Working Paper Series 2020-11, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Scott Drewianka, 2010. "Cross‐Sectional Variation In Individuals' Earnings Instability," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(2), pages 291-326, June.
    4. McCarthy, Yvonne, 2014. "Dis-entangling the mortgage arrears crisis: The rolw of the labour market, income volatility and housing equity," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Luca Barbaglia & Sebastiano Manzan & Elisa Tosetti, 2023. "Forecasting Loan Default in Europe with Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 569-596.
    6. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Raya, Josep Maria, 2011. "Is there Descriminatory Mortgage Pricing against Immigrants in the Spanish Lending Market?," Working Papers 2072/151811, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    7. Ashton, John K. & Hudson, Robert S., 2017. "The price, quality and distribution of mortgage payment protection insurance: A hedonic pricing approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 242-255.
    8. M. Dietsch & C. Welter-Nicol, 2014. "Do LTV and DSTI caps make banks more resilient?," Débats économiques et financiers 13, Banque de France.
    9. Tomasz Korol & Anestis K. Fotiadis, 2022. "Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 407-438, June.
    10. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschova, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2009. "Mortgage Indebtedness and Household Financial Distress," IZA Discussion Papers 4631, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Tomasz Korol, 2021. "Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, March.
    12. Tomasz Korol, 2021. "Evaluation of the Macro- and Micro-Economic Factors Affecting the Financial Energy of Households," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-14, June.
    13. Pfalz Reimar, 2019. "Two Approaches to Examine the Impact of Different Credit Default Indicators on Real Estate Loans," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 7(1), pages 190-215, January.
    14. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    15. Browne, Frank & Conefrey, Thomas & Kennedy, Gerard, 2013. "Understanding Irish house price movements - a user cost of capital approach," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    16. Borgoni, Riccardo & Michelangeli, Alessandra & Pirola, Federica, 2018. "Residential Satisfaction for a Continuum of Households: Evidence from European Countries," GLO Discussion Paper Series 190, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Jian Chen & Jin Xiang & Tyler T. Yang, 2018. "Re-Default Risk of Modified Mortgages," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40.
    18. Zinovyeva, E. G. & Balynskaya, N. R. & Koptyakova, S. V. & Akhmetzianova, O.O., 2020. "Analysis of the residential mortgage market in the Ural Federal District," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 6(1), pages 5-13.
    19. Silvia Avram & Mike Brewer & Paul Fisher & Laura Fumagalli, 2022. "Household Earnings and Income Volatility in the UK, 2009–2017," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 345-369, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Income volatility and residential mortgage delinquency across the EU," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 153-177, September.
    2. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "On the negative relationship between labor income uncertainty and homeownership: Risk-aversion vs. credit constraints," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 109-126, June.
    3. Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi, 2004. "Disentangling the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Mode," NBER Working Papers 10888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Luis Diaz-Serrano, 2003. "Earnings Uncertainty, Risk-Aversion and Homeownership," Economics Department Working Paper Series n135020.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    5. Decreuse, Bruno & van Ypersele, Tanguy, 2011. "Housing market regulation and the social demand for job protection," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1397-1409.
    6. Johannes Geyer, 2011. "The Effect of Health and Employment Risks on Precautionary Savings," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 408, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    7. Erik Hurst & Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi & Francisco Torralba, 2005. "Precautionary Savings and the Importance of Business Owners," NBER Working Papers 11731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dedah, Cheikhna O. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2009. "Permanent Income and the Importance of Precautionary Savings: An Instrumental Variable Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Rabitsch, Katrin & Schoder, Christian, 2016. "Buffer stock savings in a New-Keynesian business cycle model," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 231, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    10. Luc Arrondel & Hector Calvo Pardo, 2008. "Les Français sont-ils prudents ? Patrimoine et risque sur les revenus des ménages," Working Papers halshs-00585994, HAL.
    11. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "Labour Income Uncertainty, Risk Aversion and Home Ownership," IZA Discussion Papers 1008, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Ashok Mishra & Hiroki Uematsu & J. Matthew Fannin, 2013. "Measuring precautionary wealth using cross-sectional data: the case of farm households," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 131-141, March.
    13. Lothar Essig, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motive measures work?," MEA discussion paper series 05084, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    14. Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions : do subjective saving motives measures work?," Papers 05-22, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    15. Essig, Lothar, 2004. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motives measures work?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-22, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4aorppjfgr8v2prdh6fmd1kaik is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Marcus Klemm, 2012. "Job Security Perceptions and the Saving Behavior of German Households," Ruhr Economic Papers 0380, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    19. Gathergood, John, 2011. "Unemployment risk, house price risk and the transition into home ownership in the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 200-209, September.
    20. Cevdet Denizer & Holger C. Wolf, 1998. "Household Savings in Transition Economies," NBER Working Papers 6457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Hui He & Feng Huang & Zheng Liu & Dongming Zhu, 2014. "Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl” and Precautionary Swings: Evidence from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform," Working Paper Series 2014-4, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    homeownership; credit market imperfections; mortgage insurance; income volatility; precautionary savings; payment-to-income ratio; mortgage delinquency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.